This article provides the first causal estimates on the popular, cost-saving practice of diversion in the criminal justice system, an intervention that provides offenders with a second chance to avoid a criminal record. We exploit two natural experiments in Harris County, Texas where first-time felony defendants faced abrupt changes in the probability of diversion. Using administrative data and regression discontinuity methods, we find robust evidence across both experiments that diversion cuts reoffending rates in half and grows quarterly employment rates by nearly 50% over 10 years. The change in trajectory persists even 20 years out and is concentrated among young black men. An investigation of mechanisms strongly suggests that stigma associated with a felony conviction plays a key role in generating these results. Other possible mechanisms including changes in incarceration, other universal adjustments in policy or practice, and differences in criminal processing are ruled out empirically.

中文翻译：

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刑事司法制度中的转移

本文提供了在刑事司法系统中流行的，节省费用的转移行为的第一个因果估计，这种干预为罪犯提供了第二次避免犯罪记录的机会。我们在得克萨斯州哈里斯县进行了两次自然实验，首次重罪被告人的转移可能性突然发生变化。使用行政数据和回归不连续性方法，我们在两个实验中均获得了有力的证据，证明转移将未来10年的再就业率降低了一半，季度就业率增长了近50％。轨迹的变化甚至持续了20年，并且集中在年轻的黑人中。对机制的研究有力地表明，与重罪定罪相关的污名在产生这些结果中起关键作用。