In this study, we examine whether the joint use of macroprudential policies by countries that have strong financial or trade links can help slow the spread of a banking crisis from country to country. Research has shown that a financial crisis in one country is more likely to be “contagious” if that country has strong connections with other countries through trade or financial linkages. While macroprudential policies can be used to mitigate the risk of a financial crisis domestically, we find that the implementation of tighter macroprudential policies in closely linked countries can additionally help to lower the increases in real credit growth and house prices (known precursors to a crisis). As well, it can also lower the probability of a domestic banking crisis, even after controlling for these precursors, although this effect could take a couple of years to materialize. This paper sheds light on the potential for coordinated usage of macroprudential policies to help promote global financial stability.

在这项研究中，我们研究了具有强大金融或贸易联系的国家联合使用宏观审慎政策是否可以帮助减缓银行危机在各个国家之间的蔓延。研究表明，如果一个国家通过贸易或金融联系与其他国家有密切联系，则该国发生金融危机的可能性更大。虽然可以使用宏观审慎政策来减轻国内金融危机的风险，但我们发现在紧密联系的国家/地区实施更严格的宏观审慎政策可以进一步帮助降低实际信贷增长和房价的增长（已知的危机前兆） 。同样，即使在控制了这些先驱因素之后，它也可以降低发生国内银行危机的可能性，尽管这种效果可能要花几年的时间才能实现。本文阐明了协调使用宏观审慎政策以帮助促进全球金融稳定的潜力。