This paper investigates the consequences of a large and sustained liquidity infusion on the real economy using Section 936 tax incentives in Puerto Rico as a natural experiment. I find that the tax incentives increased liquidity and lowered the cost of funds for PR banks. Furthermore, 936 funds stimulated C&I and real estate loans. However, the incidence of troubled loans increases with the amount of 936 funds received, pointing to excessive and inefficient financing in those sectors. The implementation and subsequent removal of these incentives induced a structural shift in Puerto Rico's economy, generating an unintended and long-lasting boom-bust cycle.

中文翻译：

---

流动性的真正影响：波多黎各作为一个自然实验

本文使用波多黎各第 936 节税收优惠作为自然实验，研究了大量持续的流动性注入对实体经济的影响。我发现税收激励措施增加了流动性并降低了公关银行的资金成本。此外，有936个基金刺激了C＆I和房地产贷款。但是，随着936笔资金到账，不良贷款的发生率也有所增加，说明这些领域融资过度、效率低下。这些激励措施的实施和随后的取消引发了波多黎各经济的结构性转变，产生了一个意想不到的、持久的繁荣-萧条周期。