ABSTRACT

Recent scholarship has examined changes in the geographic distribution of poor persons in America, but it remains unclear whether high- and low- poverty neighborhoods have become more, or less, spatially clustered over the past several decades. Additionally, while many have argued that growth in both high-poverty spatial clusters and high-low poverty spatial clusters could yield conditions that are conducive to increases in homicide, previous research has not considered that possibility. We contribute to knowledge by examining whether there have been important shifts in the spatial clustering of poverty in America between 1980 and 2010, and if so, whether those shifts were related to changes in homicide during the period. The descriptive results of our study reveal that there were notable changes in population exposure to both high- poverty and high-low poverty spatial clusters between 1980 and 2010. Fixed-effects negative binomial regression models yield limited support for the idea that changes in spatial inequality, as measured by the clustering of high- and low-poverty neighborhoods, are associated with changes in homicide rates. In contrast, the results indicate a significant positive association between changes in exposure to very high-poverty spatial clusters and homicide trends. The findings affirm the importance of considering the spatial dynamics of demographic conditions when explaining changes in violence across communities.

摘要

最近的学术研究考察了美国贫困人口地理分布的变化，但仍不清楚在过去几十年中，高贫困和低贫困社区在空间上是否更加集中。此外，虽然许多人认为高贫困空间集群和高低贫困空间集群的增长都可能产生有利于凶杀案增加的条件，但之前的研究并未考虑这种可能性。我们通过研究 1980 年至 2010 年间美国贫困的空间聚集是否发生了重要变化，以及如果是，这些变化是否与该期间凶杀案的变化有关，从而为知识做出贡献。我们研究的描述性结果表明，在 1980 年至 2010 年期间，人口对高贫困和高低贫困空间集群的暴露发生了显着变化。固定效应负二项式回归模型对空间不平等变化的观点的支持有限，通过高贫困和低贫困社区的聚集来衡量，与凶杀率的变化有关。相比之下，结果表明高度贫困空间集群的暴露变化与凶杀趋势之间存在显着的正相关关系。研究结果肯定了在解释跨社区暴力变化时考虑人口状况的空间动态的重要性。固定效应负二项式回归模型对空间不平等的变化（通过高贫困和低贫困社区的聚集来衡量）与凶杀率变化相关的观点的支持有限。相比之下，结果表明高度贫困空间集群的暴露变化与凶杀趋势之间存在显着的正相关关系。研究结果肯定了在解释跨社区暴力变化时考虑人口状况的空间动态的重要性。固定效应负二项式回归模型对空间不平等的变化（通过高贫困和低贫困社区的聚集来衡量）与凶杀率变化相关的观点的支持有限。相比之下，结果表明高度贫困空间集群的暴露变化与凶杀趋势之间存在显着的正相关关系。研究结果肯定了在解释跨社区暴力变化时考虑人口状况的空间动态的重要性。结果表明，高度贫困空间集群的暴露变化与凶杀趋势之间存在显着的正相关关系。研究结果肯定了在解释跨社区暴力变化时考虑人口状况的空间动态的重要性。结果表明，高度贫困空间集群的暴露变化与凶杀趋势之间存在显着的正相关关系。研究结果肯定了在解释跨社区暴力变化时考虑人口状况的空间动态的重要性。