The sudden spread of the COVID-19 pandemic disturbed the entire macroeconomic system and overturned the expectations of financial market participants and decision-makers. Using a TVP-BVAR-SV model, I investigate the transmission of the quantitative easing (QE) to the exchange rate and the business credit in the Eurozone during the pre-and post-COVID-19 outbreak. I find that the responses of the exchange rate EUR/USD to monetary policy shocks vary over time. In particular, I show that the QE policy does not generate the expected effect on the exchange rate during the COVID-19 pandemic period. The results imply that the unforeseen COVID-19 crisis has disturbed and modified investors’ behavior.

COVID-19 大流行病的突然蔓延扰乱了整个宏观经济体系，颠覆了金融市场参与者和决策者的预期。使用 TVP-BVAR-SV 模型，我研究了 COVID-19 爆发前后量化宽松政策 (QE) 对欧元区汇率和商业信用的传导。我发现欧元/美元汇率对货币政策冲击的反应随时间变化。特别是，我表明量化宽松政策在 COVID-19 大流行期间不会对汇率产生预期的影响。结果表明，不可预见的 COVID-19 危机扰乱并改变了投资者的行为。