This work is intended to show that past epidemic scenarios are not suitable to estimate the macroeconomic impact of the new 2019 coronavirus. Using five centuries of macroeconomic data for England and a unique dataset on epidemics and other significant events (i.e., wars and natural disasters), we show that the macroeconomic effect of epidemics reflects the socio-economic features characterizing different eras. A mapping between past epidemic scenarios and the COVID-19-induced environment can thus lead to misleading outcomes. We believe our evidence to be of general interest and key for policymakers forced to implement rapid and effective policies.

这项工作旨在表明过去的流行情况不适合估计 2019 年新型冠状病毒的宏观经济影响。我们使用英格兰五个世纪的宏观经济数据和关于流行病和其他重大事件（即战争和自然灾害）的独特数据集，表明流行病的宏观经济影响反映了不同时代的社会经济特征。因此，过去的流行病情景与 COVID-19 诱发的环境之间的映射可能会导致误导性结果。我们相信我们的证据对于被迫实施快速有效政策的政策制定者具有普遍意义和关键。