Zooarchaeologists have relied upon various approaches to study the impacts of harvest pressure and environmental change on ungulate populations, such as analysis of prey mortality patterns and morphometrics. Analysis of ancient DNA from ungulate bones and bone fragments from archaeological sites provides an additional means for studying prey population dynamics related to environmental change and human ecology over time. In this paper, we study the population history of the largest game animal in northwest Patagonia, the guanaco (Lama guanicoe). Our study relies on the use of Bayesian Skyline Plots to determine shifts in estimated guanaco population size based on analysis of ancient mitochondrial DNA. Our results indicate that hunting by humans in addition to increases in aridity during the late Holocene led to a decline in the guanaco population in the region, which is in contrast to the harvest and environmental history in other parts of Patagonia (south of our study area). Using a weight of evidence approach that includes proxies of environmental change, human population dynamics, exploitation of guanacos, and estimates of guanaco population size, we argue that the late Holocene shift in guanaco population size was a driving factor in subsistence and settlement change related to resource intensification during the late Holocene in northwest Patagonia.

动物考古学家依靠各种方法来研究收获压力和环境变化对有蹄类动物种群的影响，例如对猎物死亡率模式和形态计量学的分析。分析有蹄类动物骨骼中的古代DNA和考古遗址中的骨骼碎片，为研究与环境变化和人类生态学有关的猎物种群动态提供了另一种手段。在本文中，我们研究了西北巴塔哥尼亚最大的猎物，美洲驼（Laama guanicoe）的种群历史。）。我们的研究依赖于贝叶斯天际线图的使用，基于对古代线粒体DNA的分析来确定估计的鬣蜥种群数量的变化。我们的结果表明，在全新世晚期，人类的狩猎以及干旱的增加导致该地区的鬣蜥种群减少，这与巴塔哥尼亚其他地区的收获和环境史形成鲜明对比（我们研究区的南部） ）。我们使用证据权重方法，包括环境变化的代理，人口动态，对美洲虎的利用以及对美洲虎人口规模的估计，我们认为，晚全新世转变后的美洲虎人口规模是与之相关的生存和定居变化的驱动因素。巴塔哥尼亚西北部全新世晚期的油气资源集约化。