Characterizing the future risks of climate change is a key goal of climate impacts analysis. Temperature binning provides a framework for analyzing sector-specific impacts by degree of warming as an alternative or complement to traditional scenario-based approaches in order to improve communication of results, comparability between studies, and flexibility to facilitate scenario analysis. In this study, we estimate damages for nine climate impact sectors within the contiguous United States (US) using downscaled climate projections from six global climate models, at integer degrees of US national warming. Each sector is analyzed based on socioeconomic conditions for both the beginning and the end of the century. The potential for adaptive measures to decrease damages is also demonstrated for select sectors; differences in damages across adaptation response scenarios within some sectors can be as much as an order of magnitude. Estimated national damages from these sectors based on a reactive adaptation assumption and 2010 socioeconomic conditions range from $600 million annually per degree of national warming for winter recreation to $8 billion annually per degree of national warming for labor impacts. Results are also estimated per degree of global temperature change and for 2090 socioeconomic conditions.

表征气候变化的未来风险是气候影响分析的一个关键目标。温度分档提供了一个框架，用于按变暖程度分析特定行业的影响，作为传统基于情景的方法的替代或补充，以改善结果交流、研究之间的可比性以及促进情景分析的灵活性。在这项研究中，我们使用来自六个全球气候模型的缩减气候预测，在美国全国变暖整数度的情况下，估计美国本土 (US) 内九个气候影响部门的损失。每个部门都根据本世纪初和本世纪末的社会经济条件进行分析。某些部门也证明了采取适应性措施减少损害的潜力；某些部门内不同适应响应情景的损害差异可能高达一个数量级。根据反应性适应假设和 2010 年社会经济条件，这些部门的估计国家损失范围从每年每度全国冬季娱乐变暖 6 亿美元到每年每度全国变暖对劳动力影响的 80 亿美元。还根据全球温度变化和 2090 年社会经济条件对结果进行了估计。根据反应性适应假设和 2010 年社会经济条件，这些部门的估计国家损失范围从每年每度全国冬季娱乐变暖 6 亿美元到每年每度全国变暖对劳动力影响的 80 亿美元。还根据全球温度变化和 2090 年社会经济条件对结果进行了估计。根据反应性适应假设和 2010 年社会经济条件，这些部门的估计国家损失范围从每年每度全国冬季娱乐变暖 6 亿美元到每年每度全国变暖对劳动力影响的 80 亿美元。还根据全球温度变化和 2090 年社会经济条件对结果进行了估计。