Abstract

The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), which is an indicator of people’s subjective outlook for the economy, is claimed to have affective dimensions, but research exploring its emotional aspects is scant. We explore association and causality between the CCI and variables denoting three emotion-related psychological states: depression, anxiety, and positive affect. Study 1 used the data of a three-arm internet-based randomized controlled trial (RCT) which examined two types of psychological intervention intended to alleviate depression. As the data was four-wave panel (longitudinal) data at six-week intervals, we examined associations between the CCI and the three emotion-related variables by applying the fixed-effects model and random-effects model (Study 1A). We also examined whether psychological interventions enhance the CCI (Study 1B). Study 2 was based on an online observation in which the CCI and the three emotion-related variables were recorded three times at two-month intervals, thus three-wave panel data was constructed. In Study 2, we examined associations between the CCI and the three emotion-related variables in the same way as Study 1A. Results confirm an association but not causality between the CCI and anxiety as well as positive affect. Existence of causality and association between the CCI and depression was not confirmed.

摘要

消费者信心指数（CCI）是人们对经济的主观看法的指标，据称具有情感方面的内容，但很少研究其情感方面的内容。我们探讨了CCI与变量之间的关联和因果关系，这些变量表示三种与情感相关的心理状态：抑郁，焦虑和积极情绪。研究1使用了一项基于互联网的三臂随机对照试验（RCT）的数据，该试验研究了两种旨在缓解抑郁症的心理干预措施。由于数据是每六周间隔的四波面板（纵向）数据，因此我们通过应用固定效应模型和随机效应模型来研究CCI与三个与情绪相关的变量之间的关联（研究1A）。我们还研究了心理干预是否能增强CCI（研究1B）。研究2基于在线观察，其中CCI和三个与情绪相关的变量以两个月的间隔记录了三次，因此构建了三波面板数据。在研究2中，我们以与研究1A相同的方式研究了CCI与三个与情绪相关的变量之间的关联。结果证实了CCI与焦虑以及积极影响之间没有关联，但没有因果关系。尚无因果关系以及CCI与抑郁症之间的关联。结果证实了CCI与焦虑以及积极影响之间没有关联，但没有因果关系。尚无因果关系以及CCI与抑郁症之间的关联。结果证实了CCI与焦虑以及积极影响之间没有关联，但没有因果关系。尚无因果关系以及CCI与抑郁症之间的关联。