Mainstream policies encourage pastoralists to apply credit loans and input exogenous fodder to alleviate the stress caused by climatic variability and uncertainty. Such external inputs induce new driving forces to the coupled pastoral social-ecological system (SES), but their long-term impacts are not fully understood. Taking Sonid Left Banner of Inner Mongolia as a case study area, we applied an agent-based model and Monte Carlo simulation to evaluate the impacts of fodder import and credit loans on the resilience of pastoral SES in terms of pastoralist household livelihood, livestock production, and rangeland health. The results showed that the strategy of importing fodder only in natural disaster years could make the pastoral SES more resilient to climatic variability, while frequent importing of fodder in climatically normal years would increase the vulnerability of the pastoral SES. Credit loans could enhance the resilience of the pastoral SES in general if fodder is not imported or only imported in disaster years, but could reduce the resilience if fodder is imported frequently. Our findings revealed several differences with previous research on fodder input and credit loan effects, indicating that relevant policies should be holistically evaluated from the perspective of social-ecological systems.

中文翻译：

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饲料进口和信贷贷款是否在内蒙古牧民社会生态系统中带来了气候适应能力？

主流政策鼓励牧民申请信贷贷款和输入外来饲料，以缓解气候变化和不确定性所带来的压力。此类外部投入为耦合的牧民社会生态系统（SES）带来了新的驱动力，但它们的长期影响尚不完全清楚。以内蒙古苏尼特左旗为案例研究区域，我们应用了基于主体的模型和蒙特卡洛模拟，从牧民家庭生计，畜牧生产，畜牧业，农业，和牧场健康。结果表明，仅在自然灾害年份才引入饲料的策略可以使田园SES对气候多变具有更强的抵御能力，而在气候正常年份频繁进口饲料将增加牧民SES的脆弱性。如果不进口饲料或仅在灾害年份进口饲料，信用贷款通常可以提高牧民SES的适应力，但是如果频繁进口饲料，则信用贷款可以降低其抗逆能力。我们的发现揭示了与以往有关饲料投入和信贷贷款效应的研究的一些差异，表明应从社会生态系统的角度对相关政策进行全面评估。