Climate change presents a serious threat to endangered plant species within a restricted habitat. Lilium polyphyllum D.Don ex Royle is a species indigenous to the coniferous forests of the Western Himalaya. However, over exploitation, due to its high medicinal properties and demands of industry, has resulted in a steep decline of its natural habitats. Consequently, the species is listed as critically endangered on the IUCN Red List. The present study was carried out in the Western Himalayan region using the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) to predict the potential distribution of L. polyphyllum in respect of IPCC future climatic scenarios. The modeling used mutually least correlated bioclimatic variables and topographic data over 53 occurrence locations. Future scenarios include IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5 (representing less harmful and harsh climatic conditions) for the years 2050 and 2070. The main predictor variables contributing to the habitat are the precipitation of the driest month (52.7%), elevation (13.9%) and temperature seasonality (7.8%). Current potential habitats for L. polyphyllum have been located in the north-west and south-east regions of the Western Himalaya. Future climate change scenarios predict that the potential habitats of this species will shrink by 38–81% in these regions and moreover the habitats will shift towards the south-east, making Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand state of India as favourable habitats in the future. These findings assist in the identification of the potential conservation areas and provision of protection against climate change.

气候变化在有限的栖息地内严重威胁着濒临灭绝的植物物种。多花百合D.Don ex Royle是西喜马拉雅山针叶林的本土树种。但是，由于其较高的药用特性和工业需求，过度开发导致其自然栖息地急剧下降。因此，该物种在世界自然保护联盟红色名录中被列为极度濒危物种。本研究是使用最大熵模型（MaxEnt）在喜马拉雅西部地区进行的，以预测多叶紫苏的潜在分布关于IPCC的未来气候情景。该模型在53个发生位置使用了相互关系最小的生物气候变量和地形数据。未来情景包括2050年和2070年的IPCC代表性浓度途径（RCP）2.6和8.5（代表较少的有害和恶劣的气候条件）。对生境产生影响的主要预测变量是最干旱月份的降水（52.7％），海拔（13.9％）和温度季节性（7.8％）。多叶紫苏目前的潜在栖息地一直位于喜马拉雅西部的西北和东南地区。未来的气候变化情景预测，该物种的潜在栖息地将在这些地区减少38-81％，而且栖息地将向东南方向转移，使印度喜马al尔邦和北阿坎德邦成为未来的有利栖息地。这些发现有助于确定潜在的保护区并提供针对气候变化的保护。