The rubber industry is one of the largest contributors to Malaysia's GDP and is economically important for the country. However, production has been declining over the last few decades. Similarly, this has also occurred in other crops such as cocoa. The decline in production adversely impacts the livelihood of local rubber smallholder farmers. To understand why this decline in rubber production has occurred, we used a systems thinking approach to analyze the underlying feedback mechanisms controlling rubber production. In addition to secondary data, we conducted focus group discussions and in-depth interviews with various actors and experts in the rubber supply chain across Peninsular Malaysia in order to develop a dynamic hypothesis that explains the decline in rubber production over time. Our analysis shows that feedback loops between global demand and supply, national rubber price, and smallholder farmer income determines rubber production at the local scale. In general, the lack of compliance and participation in the global exports restriction policy, insufficient national price incentives, and the absence of national import regulations have kept rubber prices low, leading to low profitability for smallholder farmers. This has caused smallholder farmers to reduce tapping activities and farm maintenance. Some have left rubber farming altogether. This has reduced rubber plantation area and rubber production. We propose several policy improvements to address the issue: (1) enhance the monitoring of rubber supply in the global market through international collaboration; (2) increase domestic rubber consumption through government projects and incentives and eventually follow this up with strict rubber import regulations; and (3) increase smallholder farmer income through the enhancement of government incentives and R&D, formation of co-operatives, application of crop diversification, and obtaining support from the private sector. The findings of this study are also applicable to other rubber-producing countries due to the similar dynamics that exist in the rubber production system globally. The approach adopted in this study can better facilitate engagement with rubber stakeholders, especially smallholder farmers, and inform the formulation of effective smallholder-oriented policies.

橡胶工业是马来西亚国内生产总值最大的贡献之一，对马来西亚具有重要的经济意义。但是，在过去的几十年中，产量一直在下降。同样，这也发生在其他农作物如可可中。产量下降对当地橡胶小农的生计产生不利影响。为了了解为什么橡胶产量下降会发生，我们使用系统思考方法来分析控制橡胶产量的基本反馈机制。除了二级数据，我们还与马来西亚半岛橡胶供应链中的各个参与者和专家进行了焦点小组讨论和深入访谈，以建立一个动态的假设来解释橡胶产量随着时间的推移而下降的情况。我们的分析表明，全球需求与供应，国家橡胶价格以及小农户收入之间的反馈回路决定了地方规模的橡胶生产。总的来说，由于缺乏合规性和对全球出口限制政策的参与，缺乏国家价格激励措施以及缺乏国家进口法规，使得橡胶价格一直处于低位，导致小农的盈利能力低下。这导致小农户减少了割胶活动和农场维护。有些人完全放弃了橡胶种植。这减少了橡胶种植面积和橡胶产量。我们针对此问题提出了几项政策改进措施：（1）通过国际合作加强对全球市场橡胶供应的监控；（2）通过政府项目和激励措施增加国内橡胶消费量，并最终通过严格的橡胶进口法规跟进；（3）通过加强政府激励和研发，建立合作社，应用农作物多样化以及获得私营部门的支持来增加小农收入。由于全球橡胶生产系统中存在类似的动态，因此本研究的结果也适用于其他橡胶生产国。本研究采用的方法可以更好地促进与橡胶利益相关者（尤其是小农）的互动，并为制定有效的以小农为导向的政策提供依据。（3）通过加强政府激励和研发，建立合作社，应用农作物多样化以及获得私营部门的支持来增加小农收入。由于全球橡胶生产系统中存在类似的动态，因此本研究的结果也适用于其他橡胶生产国。本研究采用的方法可以更好地促进与橡胶利益相关者（尤其是小农）的互动，并为制定有效的以小农为导向的政策提供依据。（3）通过加强政府激励和研发，建立合作社，应用农作物多样化以及获得私营部门的支持来增加小农收入。由于全球橡胶生产系统中存在类似的动态，因此本研究的结果也适用于其他橡胶生产国。本研究采用的方法可以更好地促进与橡胶利益相关者（尤其是小农）的互动，并为制定有效的以小农为导向的政策提供依据。由于全球橡胶生产系统中存在类似的动态，因此本研究的结果也适用于其他橡胶生产国。本研究采用的方法可以更好地促进与橡胶利益相关者（尤其是小农）的互动，并为制定有效的以小农为导向的政策提供依据。由于全球橡胶生产系统中存在类似的动态，因此本研究的结果也适用于其他橡胶生产国。本研究采用的方法可以更好地促进与橡胶利益相关者（尤其是小农）的互动，并为制定有效的以小农为导向的政策提供依据。