The extent to which Clovis peoples hunted proboscideans is debated. Convention requires that for a proboscidean butchery site to be accepted, contemporaneous artifacts must be spatially associated with faunal remains, and there must be evidence of use of the remains. Fourteen sites in North America currently meet those criteria; at least 31 do not. While these are reasonable requirements for avoiding false positives, such an approach risks identifying false negatives—rejecting spatial associations that are systemic associations. Given the known distributions of Clovis and proboscidean sites, how likely is it that artifacts are coincidentally associated with proboscidean remains? Conversely, how many spatial associations could be unrecognized butchery sites? To answer these questions, we simulated chance associations by plotting empirically informed densities and sizes of archaeological and proboscidean sites on simulated landscapes in which people and animals are (a) uniformly distributed and (b) tethered to water sources. The simulated frequencies of coincidental associations were compared to the observed frequency of co-occurrences. Our results suggest that of the 31 indeterminate empirical associations, at least 17 and as many as 26 are likely systemic associations, more than doubling previous estimates and revealing a greater role of humans in Pleistocene proboscidean exploitation than previously recognized.

中文翻译：

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估计北美克洛维斯文物和长鼻类动物遗骸之间巧合空间关联的频率

克洛维斯人猎杀长鼻类动物的程度存在争议。公约要求，要接受长鼻类屠宰场，同时代的文物必须在空间上与动物遗骸相关联，并且必须有使用遗骸的证据。目前北美有 14 个站点符合这些标准；至少有 31 个没有。虽然这些是避免误报的合理要求，但这种方法有识别误报的风险——拒绝作为系统关联的空间关联。鉴于克洛维斯和长鼻类遗址的已知分布，文物与长鼻类遗骸巧合相关的可能性有多大？相反，有多少空间关联可能是无法识别的屠宰场？要回答这些问题，我们通过在人类和动物（a）均匀分布和（b）拴在水源上的模拟景观上绘制经验丰富的考古和长鼻类遗址的密度和大小来模拟机会关联。将巧合关联的模拟频率与观察到的共现频率进行比较。我们的研究结果表明，在 31 个不确定的经验关联中，至少 17 个和多达 26 个可能是系统性关联，是先前估计的两倍多，并揭示了人类在更新世长鼻类动物开发中的作用比以前认识到的要大。将巧合关联的模拟频率与观察到的共现频率进行比较。我们的研究结果表明，在 31 个不确定的经验关联中，至少 17 个和多达 26 个可能是系统性关联，是先前估计的两倍多，并揭示了人类在更新世长鼻类动物开发中的作用比以前认识到的要大。将巧合关联的模拟频率与观察到的共现频率进行比较。我们的研究结果表明，在 31 个不确定的经验关联中，至少 17 个和多达 26 个可能是系统性关联，是先前估计的两倍多，并揭示了人类在更新世长鼻类动物开发中的作用比以前认识到的要大。