ABSTRACT

Adaptive and flexible approaches based on implementing different measures as new information emerges have been proposed as a way of enabling robustness towards uncertain future climate change. However, the success of flexible approaches in practice depends on the stability of the relevant organizational landscapes. In this paper, we draw upon key insights from the institutional theories of organizations and research on public administration and climate adaptation in Sweden. We argue that potential organizational instabilities pose a substantial challenge for the mainstreaming of flexible approaches to climate adaptation. Given the unstable character of the relevant organizational landscape in a very stable country such as Sweden, it seems reasonable to also seriously doubt the capacity of the relevant authorities in less stable countries to carry out a great number of monitoring-intensive, and hence attention-demanding, adaptive governance processes over time. Based on our results we argue that it is perilous to simply assume that flexible approaches to climate adaptation will lead to greater robustness.

摘要

已经提出了基于随着新信息的出现而实施不同措施的适应性和灵活的方法，作为对不确定的未来气候变化实现稳健的一种方式。然而，灵活方法在实践中的成功取决于相关组织环境的稳定性。在本文中，我们借鉴了瑞典公共行政和气候适应的组织机构理论和研究中的关键见解。我们认为，潜在的组织不稳定对气候适应灵活方法的主流化构成了重大挑战。鉴于在瑞典这样一个非常稳定的国家，相关组织格局的不稳定特征，严重怀疑不稳定国家的相关当局是否有能力随着时间的推移进行大量监测密集型、因此需要注意的适应性治理过程，这似乎是合理的。根据我们的结果，我们认为简单地假设气候适应的灵活方法将导致更大的稳健性是危险的。