ABSTRACT

Different technological domains have significantly different rates of performance improvement. Prior theory indicates that such differing rates should influence the relative speed of diffusion of the products embodying the different technologies, since the improvement in performance during the diffusion process increases the diffusing desirability of the product. However, there has been no broad empirical attempt to examine this effect and clarify its underlying cause. Therefore, this study reviews the theoretical basis and focuses upon empirical tests of this effect across multiple products and their underlying technologies. The results for 18 diffusing products show the expected relationship (faster diffusion for products based on more rapidly improving technological domains) between technological improvement and diffusion with vital statistical significance. The empirical examination also demonstrates that technological improvement does not slow down in the later stages of diffusion when penetration slows down. This finding indicates that the diffusion slowdown in the later stages is due to market saturation effects and not to a slowdown in performance improvement.

摘要

不同的技术领域具有显着不同的性能改进率。先前的理论表明，这种不同的速率应该会影响体现不同技术的产品的相对扩散速度，因为在扩散过程中性能的提高会增加产品的扩散需求。然而，没有广泛的经验尝试来检验这种影响并阐明其根本原因。因此，本研究回顾了理论基础，并侧重于对多种产品及其基础技术的这种影响的实证检验。18 个扩散产品的结果显示了技术改进与扩散之间的预期关系（基于更快速改进的技术领域的产品的更快扩散）具有重要的统计意义。实证检验还表明，当渗透率减慢时，技术改进不会在扩散后期放缓。这一发现表明，后期扩散放缓是由于市场饱和效应，而不是业绩改善放缓。