A cost-effective “parsimonious” approach to delineating groundwater potential zones is proposed, based on catastrophe theory (CT) and analytical hierarchy process (AHP) in a geographic information system (GIS). Eleven indicators that influence groundwater storage (slope, drainage density, surface-water body (proximity), soil permeability, aquitard thickness, aquifer thickness, hydraulic conductivity, specific yield, recharge, aquitard resistivity and aquifer resistivity) were prepared. The suitable weights of the factors and the index values of the features of the factors were normalized using AHP and CT multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) techniques for the development of a groundwater potential index (GWPI) map. Finally, the relative sensitivity of the factors was evaluated to develop a parsimonious groundwater potential index (P-GWPI) map using the most sensitive themes. GWPI and P-GWPI maps were validated using 14-year average annual post-monsoon depth to groundwater level data of 36 monitoring wells in a study area in Bangladesh. The generated GWPI map classified the study area as moderately good, good and very good groundwater potential covering an area of 19.5, 40.3 and 40.2% respectively. Subsequently, a modified GWPI map was developed using effective weights derived from single-parameter sensitivity analysis. The P-GWPI map developed using the most sensitive factors categorized the groundwater potential zones as moderately good (13.0%), good (38.2%) and very good (48.8%). The results of this study can serve as guidelines for future groundwater exploration, planning and management of the area, and the methodology used can also be easily adopted in other similar and data-scarce areas.

基于巨灾理论（CT）和地理信息系统（GIS）中的层次分析法（AHP），提出了一种划定地下水潜力区的划算的“简约”方法。编制了11个影响地下水储量的指标（坡度，排水密度，地表水体（邻近度），土壤渗透率，阿奎塔尔厚度，含水层厚度，水力传导率，比产率，补给量，阿奎塔尔电阻率和含水层电阻率）。使用AHP和CT多准则决策分析（MCDA）技术对因子的合适权重和因子特征的索引值进行归一化，以开发地下水潜力指数（GWPI）图。最后，利用最敏感的主题评估了这些因素的相对敏感性，以开发出一个简约的地下水潜力指数（P-GWPI）图。GWPI和P-GWPI地图使用孟加拉国某研究区域的36口监测井的季风后深度至地下水位的14年年平均数据进行了验证。生成的GWPI地图将研究区域划分为适度，良好和非常良好的地下水潜力，分别占19.5％，40.3％和40.2％的面积。随后，使用从单参数灵敏度分析得出的有效权重开发了修改后的GWPI图。利用最敏感的因素开发的P-GWPI图将地下水潜在区域划分为中度好（13.0％），好（38.2％）和非常好（48.8％）。这项研究的结果可以作为未来地下水勘探的指南，