The commercial aircraft development program is generally confronted with huge risks from various aspects. To improve the economic benefits of the aircraft program and increase the competitiveness of aircraft manufacturers, the risk analysis and economic evaluation of the aircraft program are studied in this paper, within which the qualitative risk assessment index system of the aircraft program is introduced and summarized. Based on the Monte Carlo simulation method, the uncertainties of key parameters in the aircraft program value model, such as the decision period, initial demand quantity, volatility, and price inflation, are analyzed. The range of aircraft program value and the probability distribution corresponding to each parameter are calculated, respectively. A statistical analysis of the simulation results is conducted to prove the rationality of the simulation. To obtain different state combinations, the cost and price of the aircraft are seen as risk variables directly, and the expected value and discrete coefficient are calculated to verify the profitability and feasibility of the program. By analyzing the risk assessment and economic evaluation of the aircraft program, the overall trend of the program value can be obtained, and data support for program research can be achieved.

商用飞机开发计划通常从各个方面面临巨大的风险。为了提高飞机项目的经济效益，提高飞机制造商的竞争力，本文对飞机项目进行了风险分析和经济评价，并介绍和总结了飞机项目的定性风险评估指标体系。基于蒙特卡罗仿真方法，分析了飞机程序价值模型中关键参数的不确定性，例如决策期，初始需求量，波动性和价格上涨。分别计算飞机程序值的范围和与每个参数相对应的概率分布。对仿真结果进行统计分析，以证明仿真的合理性。为了获得不同的状态组合，将飞机的成本和价格直接视为风险变量，并计算期望值和离散系数以验证该程序的盈利能力和可行性。通过分析飞机项目的风险评估和经济评估，可以获得项目价值的总体趋势，并可以为项目研究提供数据支持。