Restoration outcomes are notoriously unpredictable and this challenges the capacity to reliably meet goals. To harness ecological restoration's full potential, significant advances to predictive capacity must be made in restoration ecology. We outline a process for predicting restoration outcomes, based on the model of iterative forecasting. We then describe six challenges that impede predictive capabilities in restoration and, for each, an agenda for overcoming the challenge. Key challenges include the lack of clear goals, insufficient knowledge of why restoration outcomes vary, difficulty quantifying known drivers of variation prior to initiation of restoration projects, model uncertainty, the need to scale up local understanding to guide large-scale restoration efforts, and temporally variable conditions that hinder long-term forecast accuracy. Meeting these challenges will require research to resolve key drivers of variation in restoration outcomes; however, there is also a critical need to begin forecasting efforts in restoration ecology immediately. Although early efforts may be of limited practical utility, iterating between model development and evaluation will resolve data needs, minimize uncertainty, and lead to predictions that practitioners can confidently embrace. In turn, a robust predictive capacity will help to reliably meet goals, enhance cost-effectiveness, and guide policy decisions to help see out the promise of the Decade on Ecosystem Restoration.

中文翻译：

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修复科学中的预测和不确定性

众所周知，恢复结果是不可预测的，这对可靠地实现目标的能力提出了挑战。为了充分发挥生态恢复的潜力，必须在恢复生态学方面对预测能力进行重大改进。我们概述了基于迭代预测模型预测恢复结果的过程。然后，我们描述了阻碍恢复预测能力的六个挑战，并为每一个挑战提供了克服挑战的议程。主要挑战包括缺乏明确的目标、对恢复结果为何不同的了解不足、在启动恢复项目之前难以量化已知的变化驱动因素、模型不确定性、需要扩大当地了解以指导大规模恢复工作，以及阻碍长期预测准确性的时变条件。应对这些挑战将需要研究以解决恢复结果变化的关键驱动因素；然而，也迫切需要立即开始预测生态恢复工作。尽管早期努力的实际效用可能有限，但模型开发和评估之间的迭代将解决数据需求，最大限度地减少不确定性，并导致从业者可以自信地接受的预测。反过来，强大的预测能力将有助于可靠地实现目标、提高成本效益并指导政策决策，以帮助实现生态系统恢复十年的承诺。还迫切需要立即开始预测生态恢复工作。尽管早期努力的实际效用可能有限，但模型开发和评估之间的迭代将解决数据需求，最大限度地减少不确定性，并导致从业者可以自信地接受的预测。反过来，强大的预测能力将有助于可靠地实现目标、提高成本效益并指导政策决策，以帮助实现生态系统恢复十年的承诺。还迫切需要立即开始预测生态恢复工作。尽管早期努力的实际效用可能有限，但模型开发和评估之间的迭代将解决数据需求，最大限度地减少不确定性，并导致从业者可以自信地接受的预测。反过来，强大的预测能力将有助于可靠地实现目标、提高成本效益并指导政策决策，以帮助实现生态系统恢复十年的承诺。