The aging process in OECD countries calls for a better understanding of the future disease prevalence, life expectancy (LE) and patterns of inequalities in health outcomes. In this paper we present the results obtained from several dynamic microsimulation models of the Future Elderly Model family for 12 OECD countries, with the aim of reproducing for the first time comparable long‐term projections in individual health status across OECD countries. We provide projections of LE and prevalence of major chronic conditions and disabilities, overall, by gender and by education. We find that the prevalence of main chronic conditions in Europe is catching‐up with the United States and significant heterogeneity in the evolution of gender and educational gradients. Our findings represent a contribution to support policymakers in designing and implementing effective interventions in the healthcare sector.

中文翻译：

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老年人口健康状况的未来：填补知识空白

经合组织国家的老龄化进程要求更好地了解未来的疾病流行率、预期寿命 (LE) 和健康结果的不平等模式。在本文中，我们展示了从 12 个经合组织国家的未来老年人模型家族的几个动态微观模拟模型中获得的结果，旨在首次复制经合组织国家个人健康状况的可比长期预测。我们按性别和教育程度提供 LE 和主要慢性病和残疾患病率的总体预测。我们发现，欧洲主要慢性病的患病率正在赶上美国，并且在性别和教育梯度的演变中存在显着的异质性。