This study presents climate change impacts on streamflow for the Subarnarekha basin at two gauging locations, Jamshedpur and Ghatshila, using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model driven by an ensemble of four regional climate models (RCMs). The basin's hydrological responses to climate forcing in the projected period are analysed under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Trends in the projected period relative to the reference period are determined for medium, high and low flows. Flood characteristics are estimated using the threshold level approach. The analysis of variance technique (ANOVA) is used to segregate the contribution from RCMs, RCPs, and internal variability (IV) to the total uncertainty in streamflow projections. Results show a robust positive trend for streamflows. Flood volumes may increase by 11.7% in RCP4.5 (2006–2030), 76.4% in RCP4.5 (2025–2049), 20.3% in RCP8.5 (2006–2030), and 342.4% in RCP8.5 (2025–2049), respectively, for Jamshedpur. For Ghatshila, increment in flow volume is estimated as 15.7% in RCP4.5 (2006–2025), 24.2% in RCP4.5 (2025–2049), 35.9% in RCP8.5 (2006–2030), and 224.6% in RCP8.5 (2025–2049), respectively. Segregation results suggests that the uncertainty in climate prediction is dominated by RCMs followed by IV. These findings will serve as an early warning for the alarming extreme weather events India is currently facing.

这项研究使用土壤和水评估工具（SWAT）模型，由四个区域气候模型（RCM）集合驱动，显示了气候变化对Subarnarekha流域两个测量地点Jamshedpur和Ghatshila的流量的影响。在两个有代表性的集中路径（RCPs）下，分析了该流域在预计时期内对气候强迫的水文响应。确定了中，高和低流量的预计期间相对于参考期间的趋势。使用阈值级别方法估算洪水特征。方差分析技术（ANOVA）用于区分RCM，RCP和内部变异性（IV）对流量预测中总不确定性的贡献。结果显示出强劲的流量正趋势。洪水量可能增加11。RCP4.5（2006-2030）的7％，RCP4.5（2025-2049）的76.4％，RCP8.5（2006-2030）的20.3％和RCP8.5（2025-2049）的342.4％ ，代表詹谢普尔（Jamshedpur）。对于Ghatshila，RCP4.5（2006-2025）的流量增量估计为15.7％，RCP4.5（2025-2049）的流量为24.2％，RCP8.5（2006-2030）的流量为35.9％，RCP4.5（2006-2030）的流量为224.6％。分别为RCP8.5（2025–2049）。隔离结果表明，气候预测中的不确定性主要由RCM和IV决定。这些发现将作为印度目前面临的令人震惊的极端天气事件的预​​警。RCP8.5（2025年至2049年）分别为6％。隔离结果表明，气候预测中的不确定性主要由RCM和IV决定。这些发现将作为印度目前面临的令人震惊的极端天气事件的预​​警。RCP8.5（2025年至2049年）分别为6％。隔离结果表明，气候预测中的不确定性主要由RCM和IV决定。这些发现将作为印度目前面临的令人震惊的极端天气事件的预​​警。