This paper presents simulations of the potential effect of COVID-19-related school closures on schooling and learning outcomes. It considers four scenarios—varying in both the duration of school closures and the effectiveness of any mitigation strategies being deployed by governments. Using data on 174 countries, the analysis finds that the global level of schooling and learning will fall substantially. School closures could result in a loss of between 0.3 and 1.1 years of schooling adjusted for quality, bringing down the effective years of basic schooling that students achieve during their lifetime from 7.8 years to between 6.7 and 7.5 years. Close to 11 million students from primary up to secondary education could drop out due to the income shock of the pandemic alone. Exclusion and inequality will likely be exacerbated if already marginalized and vulnerable groups, such as girls, ethnic minorities, and persons with disabilities, are more adversely affected by school closures. Students from the current cohort could, on average, face a reduction of $366 to $1,776 in yearly earnings. In present value terms, this amounts to between $6,680 and $32,397 dollars in lost earnings over a typical student's lifetime. Globally, a school shutdown of 5 months could generate learning losses that have a present value of $10 trillion. By this measure, the world could stand to lose as much as 16 percent of the investments that governments make in the basic education of this cohort of students. In the pessimistic and very pessimistic scenarios, cumulative losses could add up to between $16 and $20 trillion in present value terms. Unless drastic remedial action is taken, the world could face a substantial setback in achieving the goal of halving the percentage of learning poor by 2030.

中文翻译：

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模拟COVID-19停课对学校教育和学习成果的潜在影响：一组全球估计

本文介绍了与COVID-19相关的学校停课对学校教育和学习成果的潜在影响的模拟。它考虑了四种方案-学校关闭的持续时间和政府部署的任何缓解策略的有效性都各不相同。通过使用174个国家/地区的数据，分析发现全球的教育和学习水平将大大下降。停课可能导致损失0.3至1.1年的教育时间（根据质量进行调整），使学生一生中获得的基础教育的有效年限从7.8年降低到6.7至7.5年。仅由于大流行的收入冲击，将有近1100万从小学到中学教育的学生辍学。如果已经边缘化的弱势群体（如女孩，少数民族和残疾人）受到学校关闭的不利影响，则排斥和不平等现象可能会加剧。目前，这个群体的学生的平均年收入将减少366美元，至1,776美元。以现值计算，在典型的学生一生中，这损失了6,680美元至3,397美元。在全球范围内，停课5个月可能会导致学习损失，目前的价值为10万亿美元。通过这种措施，全世界可能会损失政府在这批学生的基础教育中投入的多达16％的投资。在悲观和非常悲观的情况下，以现值计算，累计损失可能总计达16至20万亿美元。除非采取严厉的补救措施，否则世界可能在实现到2030年将学习贫困人口比例减半的目标方面面临重大挫折。