Climate change has the potential to reduce the abundance and distribution of species and threaten global biodiversity, but it is typically not listed as a threat in classifying species conservation status. This likely occurs because demonstrating climate change as a threat requires data‐intensive demographic information. Moreover, the threat from climate change is often studied in specific biomes, such as polar or arid ones. Other biomes, such as coastal ones, have received little attention, despite being currently exposed to substantial climate change effects. We forecast the effect of climate change on the demography and population size of a federally endangered coastal dune plant (Lupinus tidestromii). We use data from a 14‐yr demographic study across seven extant populations of this endangered plant. Using model selection, we found that survival and fertility measures responded negatively to temperature anomalies. We then produced forecasts based on stochastic individual‐based population models that account for uncertainty in demographic outcomes. Despite large uncertainties, we predict that all populations will decline if temperatures increase by 1°C. Considering the total number of individuals across all seven populations, the most likely outcome is a population decline of 90%. Moreover, we predict extinction is certain for one of our seven populations. These results demonstrate that climate change will profoundly decrease the current and future population growth rates of this plant, and its chance of persistence. Thus, our study provides the first evidence that climate change is an extinction threat for a plant species classified as endangered under the USA Endangered Species Act.

中文翻译：

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温度升高威胁到已经濒临灭绝的沿海沙丘工厂

气候变化有可能减少物种的数量和分布，并威胁全球生物多样性，但在对物种保护状况进行分类时，通常不会将其列为威胁。之所以会发生这种情况，是因为要证明气候变化是一种威胁，就需要数据密集型人口统计信息。此外，通常在特定的生物群落中研究来自气候变化的威胁，例如极地或干旱的生物群落。尽管其他生物群落（如沿海生物群落）目前正遭受重大的气候变化影响，但受到的关注却很少。我们预测了气候变化对联邦濒危沙丘植物（羽扇豆潮）人口和人口规模的影响）。我们使用了一项针对该濒危植物的七个现存种群的14年人口统计学研究的数据。使用模型选择，我们发现生存和生育措施对温度异常产生负面响应。然后，我们基于随机的基于个体的人口模型进行了预测，这些人口模型说明了人口统计结果的不确定性。尽管不确定性很大，但我们预测，如果温度每升高1°C，所有人口都会减少。考虑到所有七个人口的总数，最有可能的结果是人口下降了90％。此外，我们预测灭绝对于我们的七个种群之一是肯定的。这些结果表明，气候变化将极大地降低该植物当前和未来的人口增长率及其持久性的机会。因此，