Purpose

This study aims to formulate exploratory scenarios of the textile industry in Iran based on MICMAC and soft operational research methods.

Design/methodology/approach

In this study, to formulate plausible scenarios, literature reviews and external experts’ opinions of this field have been gathered through the Delphi approach and uncertainty questionnaires. After the utilization of the most important uncertainties, the textile industry’s plausible scenarios have been mapped with the help of experts through co-thinking workshops. Results show that two factors, including the business atmosphere and membership in World Trade Organization (WTO), play a more important role than the other factors. These two factors were considered for the formulation of the scenario. To formulate plausible scenarios, soft systems methodology, which is a kind of soft operational research methods, is applied.

Findings

Based on the results, four scenarios are presented. These scenarios include the Elysium scenario, Hades scenario, Tatarus scenario and Sisyphus scenario. In the Elysium scenario, the business atmosphere has improved and Iran has been granted membership of the WTO. In Hades scenario, Iran has joined the WTO, but due to the government’s weakness and inactivity and key decision-makers, the required preparations have not been made. In the Tatarus scenario, Iran is not a WTO member and the business atmosphere is disastrous. In the Sisyphus scenario, the government takes reasonable actions toward a better business environment.

Originality/value

Formulating plausible scenarios of the textile industry is an excellent contribution to the key beneficiaries and actors of this industry so they can present flexible preparation-based programs in the face of circumstances. Future study of the textile industry familiarizes the actors and beneficiaries of this industry with the procedures and the driving forces that influence this industry’s future and it will ascertain various scenarios for the actors of this field.

中文翻译：

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使用 MICMAC 和软运筹学方法对伊朗纺织业的未来研究

目的

本研究旨在基于 MICMAC 和软运营研究方法制定伊朗纺织业的探索性情景。

设计/方法/方法

在本研究中，为了制定合理的情景，通过德尔菲法和不确定性问卷收集了该领域的文献综述和外部专家的意见。在利用了最重要的不确定性之后，在专家的帮助下，通过共同思考研讨会绘制了纺织行业的合理情景。结果表明，商业氛围和世界贸易组织（WTO）成员身份这两个因素比其他因素起着更重要的作用。在制定方案时考虑了这两个因素。为了制定合理的场景，应用了软系统方法论，这是一种软运筹学方法。

发现

根据结果​​，提出了四种情况。这些场景包括极乐世界场景、哈迪斯场景、塔塔罗斯场景和西西弗斯场景。在 Elysium 情景中，商业氛围有所改善，伊朗已被授予 WTO 成员资格。在哈迪斯情景中，伊朗加入了世贸组织，但由于政府的软弱和不作为以及关键决策者的作用，还没有做好必要的准备工作。在 Tatarus 情景中，伊朗不是 WTO 成员，商业氛围是灾难性的。在西西弗斯情景中，政府采取合理行动以改善商业环境。

原创性/价值

制定纺织行业的合理方案是对该行业的主要受益者和参与者的极好贡献，因此他们可以在面对情况时提出灵活的基于准备的计划。对纺织业的未来研究使该行业的参与者和受益者熟悉影响该行业未来的程序和驱动力，并将确定该领域参与者的各种情景。