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Cumulative emissions accounting of greenhouse gases due to path independence for a sufficiently rapid emissions cycle
Climate Dynamics ( IF 3.8 ) Pub Date : 2021-03-25 , DOI: 10.1007/s00382-021-05739-3
Ashwin K. Seshadri

Cumulative emissions accounting for carbon-dioxide (\(\hbox {CO}_{2}\)) is founded on recognition that global warming in earth system models is roughly proportional to cumulative \(\hbox {CO}_{2}\) emissions, regardless of emissions pathway. However, cumulative emissions accounting only requires the graph between global warming and cumulative emissions to be approximately independent of emissions pathway (“path-independence”), regardless of functional relationship between these variables. The concept and mathematics of path-independence are considered for an energy-balance climate model, giving rise to a closed-form expression of global warming, together with analysis of the atmospheric cycle following emissions. Path-independence depends on the ratio between the period of the emissions cycle and the atmospheric lifetime, being a valid approximation if the emissions cycle has period comparable to or shorter than the atmospheric lifetime. This makes cumulative emissions accounting potentially relevant beyond \(\hbox {CO}_{2}\), to other greenhouse gases with lifetimes of several decades whose emissions have recently begun.



中文翻译:

由于路径独立性而导致的温室气体的累积排放核算,以确保足够快的排放周期

二氧化碳的累积排放量(\(\ hbox {CO} _ {2} \))是基于以下认识而建立的:地球系统模型中的全球变暖与累积\(\ hbox {CO} _ {2} \ )排放,无论排放途径如何。但是,累积排放核算仅要求全球变暖与累积排放之间的关系图与排放路径(“路径独立性”)大致无关,而与这些变量之间的功能关系无关。对于能量平衡的气候模型,考虑了路径独立性的概念和数学,从而产生了全球变暖的封闭形式,并分析了排放后的大气循环。路径独立性取决于排放周期的时间与大气寿命之间的比率,如果排放周期的周期等于或小于大气寿命,则这是有效的近似值。这使得累积排放核算可能超越\(\ hbox {CO} _ {2} \)到最近开始排放的具有数十年使用寿命的其他温室气体。

更新日期:2021-03-26
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