The Mediterranean region is expected to be a hotspot for climate change, making the resilience of farming systems a major challenge. Some studies have used quantitative models at the farm scale to analyze the resilience of farming systems but with little involvement of stakeholders. We used a participatory approach with local actors on the Saïs plain of Morocco to design possible future states and qualitatively assess the resilience of typical farm types (FTs) experiencing major change. Our approach combined individual interviews of farmers and local actors, mainly public, with participatory collective meetings to identify representative FTs and their performance, project their evolutions and future performance in the face of change, and evaluate their resilience. Performance, defined according to literature, interviews and meetings, included different types of capital, income, yields, markets, support of public policies, and water access. Four FTs were considered: highly irrigated horticulture (FT1), rainfed cereals (FT2), partly irrigated cereal-legumes (FT3), and mostly irrigated fruit-tree/horticulture (FT4). The primary driver for FT2 and FT3 was climate change; for FT1 and FT4, it was limiting access to water resources. Participants designed more diversified systems for all FTs in relation to those changes. Rankings of FT performance did not change between current and future states. Performance did not evolve significantly, but FT4 was seen as the most resilient and FT2 the least. These qualitative results differ somewhat from other studies mobilizing quantitative approaches, but they highlight the potential of local adaptation to limit the impacts of global change on vulnerable agriculture.

预计地中海地区将成为气候变化的热点，这将使耕作系统的复原力成为主要挑战。一些研究使用了农场规模的定量模型来分析耕作系统的复原力，但利益相关者很少参与。我们与摩洛哥Saïs平原的当地参与者采用参与式方法来设计可能的未来州，并定性评估经历重大变化的典型农场类型（FTs）的复原力。我们的方法将对农民和当地参与者（主要是公众）的个人访谈与参与性集体会议相结合，以识别具有代表性的金融时报及其表现，预测其在变化中的演变和未来表现，并评估其适应力。根据文献，访谈和会议定义的表现，包括不同类型的资本，收入，收益，市场，公共政策支持和水的获取。考虑了四个FT：高度灌溉的园艺（FT1），雨养谷物（FT2），部分灌溉的谷类豆类食品（FT3），以及大部分灌溉的果树/园艺（FT4）。FT2和FT3的主要驱动力是气候变化。对于FT1和FT4，这限制了水资源的获取。参与者针对这些变化为所有金融时报设计了更加多样化的系统。金融时报表现的排名在当前状态和未来状态之间没有变化。性能没有显着变化，但是FT4被认为是最有弹性的，而FT2却是最不灵活的。这些定性结果与动员定量方法的其他研究有所不同，