Developing an effective tsunami evacuation plan is essential for disaster risk reduction in coastal regions. To develop effective tsunami evacuation plans, real transportation network, interaction among evacuees, and uncertainties associated with future tsunami events need to be considered in a holistic manner. This study aims to develop such an integrated tsunami evacuation approach using agent-based evacuation simulation and advanced stochastic tsunami hazard assessment. As a case study, a urban area in Padang, Indonesia, threatened by tsunamis from the Mentawai–Sunda subduction zone, is adopted. The uncertainty of the tsunami hazard is taken into account by generating 900 stochastic tsunami inundation maps for three earthquake magnitudes, i.e. 8.5, 8.75, and 9.0. A simplified evacuation approach considering the evacuees moving directly to evacuation areas (defined a priori) is compared with two more rigorous agent-based modeling approaches: (a) a two-destination-point tsunami evacuation plan developed by the local government and (b) a multiple-destination-point plan developed in this study. The improved agent-based stochastic tsunami evacuation framework with multiple destinations takes advantage of the extensive tsunami hazard analyses to define safe areas in a dynamic manner and is capable of capturing the uncertainty of future tsunami risk in coastal areas. In contrast, the results clearly show that the simplified approach significantly underestimates the evacuation time, and the existing tsunami evacuation routes identified by local authorities may be insufficient to save lives.

制定有效的海啸疏散计划对于减少沿海地区的灾难风险至关重要。为了制定有效的海啸疏散计划，需要全面考虑实际的交通网络，疏散人员之间的相互作用以及与未来海啸事件相关的不确定性。这项研究的目的是使用基于代理的撤离模拟和先进的随机海啸危害评估方法来开发这种集成的海啸撤离方法。作为案例研究，采用了印度尼西亚巴东市的一个城市，该城市受到来自Mentawai-Sunda俯冲带海啸的威胁。通过针对三个地震级别（即8.5、8.75和9.0）生成900个随机海啸淹没图，将海啸危害的不确定性考虑在内。考虑到直接将疏散人员转移到疏散区（先验定义）的简化疏散方法，与基于代理的两种更严格的建模方法进行了比较：（a）地方政府制定的两站式海啸疏散计划，以及（b）在这项研究中制定了一个多目标点计划。改进的基于代理人的具有多个目的地的随机海啸避难框架，利用广泛的海啸危害分析功能以动态方式定义了安全区域，并且能够捕获沿海地区未来海啸风险的不确定性。相反，结果清楚地表明，简化的方法大大低估了疏散时间，地方当局确定的现有海啸疏散路线可能不足以挽救生命。