ABSTRACT

The aim of the paper is to estimate the effects of increasing debt burden on the wage share of national income in the eurozone from 1999 to 2019 in an attempt to verify, through a dynamic panel data cointegrating technique, whether an increase in debt implies a redistribution of resources from workers to non-wage incomes. To deepen this analysis, the empirical investigation also distinguishes between change in primary public balance and interest payments to evaluate separately the effects of the two components of public debt on wages. The outcomes are consistent with a negative relationship between public debt as a whole and the wage share. However, when accounting for the two debt components, opposite results are registered as the debt service is negatively connected, while change in primary public deficit is positively connected with the wage share of national GDP. These results allow reflecting on the interaction between the monetary policy strategy and the national fiscal policies in the eurozone.

摘要

本文的目的是估计 1999 年至 2019 年欧元区债务负担增加对国民收入工资份额的影响，试图通过动态面板数据协整技术验证债务增加是否意味着重新分配从工人到非工资收入的资源。为了深化这一分析，实证调查还区分了主要公共收支和利息支付的变化，以分别评估公共债务的两个组成部分对工资的影响。结果与整体公共债务与工资份额之间的负相关是一致的。但是，在考虑两个债务组成部分时，由于偿债呈负相关，因此记录了相反的结果，而主要公共赤字的变化与工资占国民生产总值的份额呈正相关。这些结果可以反映欧元区货币政策战略与国家财政政策之间的相互作用。