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Modelling the yield and profitability of intercropped walnut systems in Croatia
Agroforestry Systems ( IF 2.0 ) Pub Date : 2021-03-24 , DOI: 10.1007/s10457-021-00611-z
Helena Žalac , Paul Burgess , Anil Graves , Michail Giannitsopoulos , Ivan Paponja , Brigita Popović , Vladimir Ivezić

In Croatia, farmers are showing increasing interest in establishing walnut orchards for nut production on arable land due to higher anticipated net margins. One way to address the lack of profitability in the initial years when nut yields are low may be to plant arable intercrops. The anticipated impacts of this practice were assessed using a biophysical simulation model (Yield-SAFE) to determine the growth and yield of crops and trees in arable, orchard, and silvoarable systems, and an economic farm model (Farm-SAFE) was used to assess their profitability. The walnut orchard and the intercropped orchard systems were simulated assuming tree densities of 170, 135, and 100 trees ha−1, to determine the profitability and break-even date of the systems. The biophysical simulation predicted a decline in arable intercrop yields over time in all tree density scenarios. However, analysis of productivity of intercropped systems showed that intercropping was more productive than separate arable and walnut production for all tree density scenarios. From financial aspect, the return from intercropping helped to offset some of the initial orchard establishment costs and the arable intercrop remained profitable until the sixth year after tree planting. The modelling predicted that a system with 170 trees ha−1 that included intercropping for the first 6 years provided the greatest cumulative net margin after 20 years. The financial benefit of intercropping over the first 6 years opposed to monoculture walnut fruit production appeared to be consistent across the three tree densities studied. These results suggest that silvoarable agroforestry is profitable approach to establishing walnut orchards.



中文翻译:

对克罗地亚套种核桃系统的产量和获利能力进行建模

在克罗地亚,由于预期的净利润更高,农民对在可耕地上建立核桃果园生产核桃果园的兴趣日益浓厚。解决坚果产量低的最初几年中缺乏盈利能力的一种方法可能是种植可耕作的间作作物。使用生物物理模拟模型(Yield-SAFE)评估了该做法的预期影响,以确定可耕种,果园和可食用系统中农作物和树木的生长和产量,并使用经济农场模型(Farm-SAFE)评估其盈利能力。假设果树密度为170、135和100棵树ha -1,则对核桃果园和间作果园系统进行了模拟,以确定系统的获利能力和收支平衡日期。生物物理模拟预测,在所有树木密度情景中,耕作间作产量均会随时间下降。但是,对间作系统的生产力进行的分析表明,在所有树木密度情景下,间作都比单独的耕作和核桃生产更具生产力。从经济角度来看,间作的收益有助于抵消部分果园的初始建设成本,而可耕作的间作直到植树后的第六年仍保持盈利。建模预测一个拥有170棵树ha -1的系统前6年包括套作在内的20年后提供了最大的累计净利润。在所研究的三种树密度下,与单一栽培核桃果实生产相比,前六年间作的经济利益似乎是一致的。这些结果表明,可造林的农林业是建立核桃果园的有利途径。

更新日期:2021-03-25
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