By the end of 2018 Turkey had entered a new economic crisis and a lengthy recession period. In contrast to the previous financial crises of 1994, 2001 and 2009, when the economy shrank abruptly with a spectacular collapse of asset values and a severe contraction of output, the 2018 economic crisis was characterized by a prolonged recession with persistent low (negative) rates of growth, dwindling investment performance, debt repayment problems, secularly rising unemployment, spiralling currency depreciation and high inflation. The mainstream approach attributes this dismal performance to a lack of ‘structural reforms’ and/or exogenous policy factors. However, this analysis shows that the underlying sources of the crisis are to be found not in the conjunctural cycles of reform fatigue, but rather in the post-2001, neoliberal, speculation-led growth model that relied excessively on hot-money inflows and external debt accumulation. This article argues that following the post-2001 orthodox reforms, a foreign capital inflow-dependent, debt-led and construction-centred economic growth model dominated the economy and caused a long build-up of imbalances and increased fragilities that led to the 2018 crisis. The Covid-19 pandemic of 2020‒21 further exposed these fragilities, pushing the economy back into a recession with rapid capital outflows causing another round of sharp currency depreciation.

中文翻译：

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土耳其危机的再造

到 2018 年底，土耳其进入了新的经济危机和漫长的衰退期。与之前的 1994 年、2001 年和 2009 年金融危机相比，当时经济突然萎缩，资产价值急剧下跌，产出严重收缩，而 2018 年经济危机的特点是长期衰退和持续的低（负）利率增长、投资业绩下降、债务偿还问题、失业率长期上升、货币贬值和高通胀。主流方法将这种惨淡的表现归因于缺乏“结构性改革”和/或外生政策因素。然而，这一分析表明，危机的根本根源不是在改革疲劳的结合周期中，而是在 2001 年后的新自由主义、过度依赖热钱流入和外债积累的投机主导型增长模式。本文认为，在 2001 年后的正统改革之后，依赖外国资本流入、债务主导和以建设为中心的经济增长模式主导了经济，并导致长期积累的失衡和脆弱性增加，从而导致了 2018 年的危机。 . 2020-21 年的 Covid-19 大流行进一步暴露了这些脆弱性，推动经济重新陷入衰退，资本迅速外流，导致货币又一轮大幅贬值。以债务为主导和以建设为中心的经济增长模式主导了经济，并导致长期不平衡和脆弱性加剧，从而导致 2018 年危机。2020-21 年的 Covid-19 大流行进一步暴露了这些脆弱性，推动经济重新陷入衰退，资本迅速外流，导致货币又一轮大幅贬值。以债务为主导和以建设为中心的经济增长模式主导了经济，并导致长期不平衡和脆弱性加剧，从而导致 2018 年危机。2020-21 年的 Covid-19 大流行进一步暴露了这些脆弱性，推动经济重新陷入衰退，资本迅速外流，导致货币又一轮大幅贬值。