Globally, the need for more sustainable modes of transport is rising. One of the main contenders of the car is the electrical bike (e-bike). To promote the use of e-bikes, pilots are being organised worldwide (e.g. in the USA, Norway, and the Netherlands). Studies have shown that providing a free e-bike to people for a limited period of time changes their mode choice behaviour during the pilot period. Only few studies have also investigated the long-term effects of these free e-bike trial periods, which show increase in e-bike use in general. However, these studies have failed to investigate why some participants of the trials change behaviour on the long-term, whereas others continued their former behaviour. This study aims to bridge this gap. A pilot with e-bikes was organised at Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands, with the goal of reducing car use for commuter trips towards the university. Data was collected at various moments during and after the trial period to evaluate the long-term changes in commuting behaviour and to identify potential reasons for these changes. A total of 82 participants are included in this study. Overall, car use for commuting decreased from 88% before the pilot to 63% three months after the pilot. E-bike use went up from 2% to 18% in the same time period. A binary logistic regression model shows that the most important variables to explain the decrease in car use are 1) purchase of an e-bike, 2) the participant’s perception regarding e-bike safety, and 3) the aim of the participant to use the pilot to change their current behaviour. Besides that, the most important predictor of increase in e-bike use is the purchase of an e-bike. Furthermore, participants identify the investment costs of an e-bike as the strongest reason for not purchasing an e-bike and, thus, not changing their commuting behaviour. Future pilot programs could consider the potential of incrementally purchasing an e-bike over a longer period of time, instead of at once, to increase e-bike adoption rate.

在全球范围内，对更可持续的运输方式的需求正在上升。汽车的主要竞争者之一是电动自行车（e-bike）。为了促进电动自行车的使用，正在全球范围内组织飞行员（例如在美国，挪威和荷兰）。研究表明，在有限的时间内为人们提供免费的电动自行车会改变他们在试行期内的模式选择行为。只有很少的研究还调查了这些免费电动自行车试用期的长期影响，这些时期显示出总体上电动自行车的使用有所增加。但是，这些研究未能调查为什么某些试验参与者会长期改变行为，而另一些试验者仍继续以前的行为。这项研究旨在弥合这一差距。荷兰代尔夫特理工大学组织了一次电动自行车试点，目的是减少通勤去大学途中的汽车使用量。在试验期间和试验之后的各个时刻收集数据，以评估通勤行为的长期变化并确定造成这些变化的潜在原因。这项研究总共包括82名参与者。总体而言，通勤用车从飞行员前的88％下降到飞行员后三个月的63％。同期，电动自行车的使用率从2％上升到18％。二元logistic回归模型显示，解释汽车使用减少的最重要变量是1）购买电动自行车，2）参与者对电动自行车安全性的看法以及3）参与者使用电动自行车的目的。飞行员改变他们目前的行为。除此之外，电动自行车使用量增长的最重要预测因素是电动自行车的购买。此外，参与者将电动自行车的投资成本确定为不购买电动自行车，因此不改变通勤行为的最重要原因。未来的试点计划可能会考虑在更长的时间内而不是立即购买电动自行车的潜力，以提高电动自行车的普及率。