We contribute to the M&A literature by characterizing the information available to target insiders during the pre-public takeover negotiations. We analyze insider trading in target firms in the US between 2005 and 2018. First, we show that signing confidentiality agreements is an important information threshold. Second, insiders have a good grasp of deal success. They increase their net purchases only in deals with higher completion probability. Third, insiders guess the final offer price well, but their trading strategies additionally reflect their knowledge of deal characteristics. They prefer bidder-initiated, cash, privately negotiated, and strategic deals. Insiders combine several sources of information.

中文翻译：

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收购公告前交易时针对内部人士的偏好：交易完成概率、溢价和交易特征

我们通过描述公开收购前谈判期间目标内部人士可获得的信息，为并购文献做出贡献。我们分析了 2005 年至 2018 年美国目标公司的内幕交易。首先，我们表明签署保密协议是一个重要的信息门槛。其次，内部人士对交易成功有很好的把握。他们只会在完成概率较高的交易中增加净购买量。第三，内部人士很好地猜测了最终报价，但他们的交易策略也反映了他们对交易特征的了解。他们更喜欢投标人发起的、现金的、私下协商的和战略交易。内部人士结合了多种信息来源。