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Asymmetric Patterns of Demand-Supply Mismatch in Real Estate
The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics ( IF 1.7 ) Pub Date : 2021-03-24 , DOI: 10.1007/s11146-020-09812-2
Gianluca Marcato , Anupam Nanda

As expectations change, we may observe asymmetry in responses of economic agents over various phases of the economic cycles. In this paper, we analyze both demand and supply side information to understand the dynamics of price determination in the real estate market and examine the relationship between expectation parameters and demand-supply mismatch. Our hypothesis builds on the possibility that investors’ call for action in terms of their buy/sell decision and adjustment in reservation prices may provide valuable insights into impending demand-supply imbalances in the market. We study several real estate sectors to inform our analysis. The timeframe of our analysis (1995–2010) allows us to observe market dynamics over several economic cycles. We test our hypothesis variously using several measures of market activity within a structural panel VAR framework. Our analysis suggests that investors’ attitude may have substantial and statistically significant feedback effects in price determination. These results indicate noticeable asymmetry in responses during the boom, normal and recessionary periods.



中文翻译:

房地产供需不匹配的不对称模式

随着期望的变化,我们可能会在经济周期的各个阶段观察到经济主体响应的不对称性。在本文中,我们分析了供需双方的信息,以了解房地产市场中价格决定的动态,并检验了预期参数与供需不匹配之间的关系。我们的假设建立在以下可能性之上:投资者根据购买/出售决定和保留价格的调整采取行动可能会为即将到来的市场供求失衡提供有价值的见解。我们研究了几个房地产行业,以为我们的分析提供依据。我们的分析时间范围(1995-2010年)使我们可以观察几个经济周期内的市场动态。我们使用结构化面板VAR框架内的几种市场活动度量来不同地检验我们的假设。我们的分析表明,投资者的态度可能会在价格确定方面产生实质性和统计上显着的反馈效果。这些结果表明,在繁荣时期,正常时期和衰退时期,响应明显不对称。

更新日期:2021-03-24
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