ABSTRACT

Understanding how human and water systems co-evolve is a vital step towards achieving sustainability. This paper presents a historical socio-hydrological analysis of a semi-arid and overexploited basin in Eastern Iran, which is currently experiencing a serious water crisis. The co-evolutionary history of the socio-hydrological system within the basin was divided into three phases: natural, expansion and contraction. During the natural phase (from the Lower Paleolithic era to 650 AD), the basin was in pristine condition. In the expansion phase, including traditional development (650 to 1920) and industrial development (1920 to the present), the major proportion of non-renewable groundwater was employed towards economic gain. Considering the banning of groundwater development in the basin in 1966, the contraction phase has gradually begun since then; notwithstanding this, the expansion phase has continued. Furthermore, guided by historical analysis, a perceptual socio-hydrological model was developed to improve understanding of the co-evolutionary dynamics of the coupled human–water system.

摘要

了解人类和水系统如何共同发展是实现可持续性的关键一步。本文介绍了伊朗东部一个半干旱和过度开发盆地的历史社会水文学分析，该盆地目前正面临严重的水危机。流域内社会水文学系统的共同演化史分为三个阶段：自然，扩张和收缩。在自然阶段（从下旧石器时代到公元650年），盆地处于原始状态。在扩张阶段，包括传统发展（650至1920年）和工业发展（1920年至今），不可再生地下水的大部分被用于经济利益。考虑到1966年该流域禁止地下水开发，此后的收缩阶段已逐渐开始。尽管如此，扩张阶段仍在继续。此外，在历史分析的指导下，建立了感知社会水文模型，以增进对人类水系统耦合动力学的理解。