ABSTRACT

The farmers in the Bow River Basin (BRB), Canada, have adopted water conservation strategies to reduce water needs. This reduction, however, encouraged the expansion of irrigation, which may rebound agricultural water demands. This paradox requires an understanding of human adaptation to drought by mapping individual farmers’ water conservation decisions to the dynamics of the basin-wide water demand. We develop an agent-based agricultural water demand (ABAD) model, simulating farmers’ behavior in adopting new on-farm irrigation systems and/or changing crop patterns in response to drought conditions in the BRB. ABAD demonstrates (1) how farmers’ attitude toward profits, risk aversion, environmental protection, social interaction, and irrigation expansion explains the dynamics of the water demand and (2) how the conservation program may paradoxically lead to the rebound phenomenon. ABAD, subject to its conceptualization limitations, can be used for exploration and scenario analysis of future agricultural water demand in response to water conservation programs in the BRB.

摘要

加拿大弓河盆地（BRB）的农民已经采取了节水策略，以减少用水需求。但是，这种减少鼓励了灌溉的扩大，这可能使农业用水需求反弹。这种悖论要求通过将单个农民的节水决策映射到整个流域用水需求的动态，来了解人类对干旱的适应性。我们开发了一种基于代理的农业用水需求（ABAD）模型，以模拟农民在采用新的农场灌溉系统和/或响应BRB干旱条件而改变作物模式时的行为。ABAD展示（1）农民对利润，规避风险，环境保护，社会互动的态度，灌溉扩展解释了用水需求的动态，以及（2）保护计划如何自相矛盾地导致反弹现象。ABAD受其概念上的限制，可用于响应BRB中的节水计划而对未来农业用水需求进行探索和情景分析。