The COVID-19 pandemic and nationally mandated restrictions to control the virus have been associated with increased mental health issues. However, the differential impact of the pandemic and lockdown on groups of individuals, and the personal characteristics associated with poorer outcomes are unknown.

Data from 21 938 adults in England who participated in a stratified cohort study were analysed. Trajectories of depression and anxiety symptoms were identified using growth mixture modelling. Multinomial and logistic regression models were constructed to identify sociodemographic and personality-related risk factors associated with trajectory class membership.

Four trajectories of depression and five for anxiety were identified. The most common group presented with low symptom severity throughout, other classes were identified that showed: severe levels of symptoms which increased; moderate symptoms throughout; worsening mental health during lockdown but improvements after lockdown ended; and for anxiety only, severe initial anxiety that decreased quickly during lockdown. Age, gender, ethnicity, income, previous diagnoses, living situation, personality factors and sociability were associated with different trajectories.

Nearly 30% of participants experienced trajectories with symptoms in the clinical range during lockdown, and did not follow the average curve or majority group, highlighting the importance of differential trajectories. Young, female, outgoing and sociable people and essential workers experienced severe anxiety around the announcement of lockdown which rapidly decreased. Younger individuals with lower incomes and previous mental health diagnoses experienced higher and increasing levels of symptoms. Recognising the likely symptom trajectories for such groups may allow for targeted care or interventions.

COVID-19 大流行和国家强制控制该病毒的限制措施与心理健康问题的增加有关。然而，大流行和封锁对个体群体的不同影响，以及与较差结果相关的个人特征尚不清楚。

对参加分层队列研究的 21,938 名英格兰成年人的数据进行了分析。使用生长混合模型确定抑郁和焦虑症状的轨迹。构建多项式和逻辑回归模型来识别与轨迹类别成员资格相关的社会人口学和人格相关风险因素。

确定了四种抑郁轨迹和五种焦虑轨迹。最常见的组自始至终症状严重程度较低，其他类别则显示：症状严重程度增加；整个过程中度症状；封锁期间心理健康状况恶化，但封锁结束后有所改善；仅针对焦虑，最初的严重焦虑在封锁期间迅速减少。年龄、性别、种族、收入、既往诊断、生活状况、性格因素和社交能力与不同的轨迹相关。

近 30% 的参与者在封锁期间经历了临床范围内症状的轨迹，并且没有遵循平均曲线或大多数群体，这凸显了差异轨迹的重要性。年轻、女性、外向、善于交际的人和重要工作人员在封锁的宣布后经历了严重的焦虑，这种焦虑迅速减少。收入较低且之前有心理健康诊断的年轻人经历的症状更高且程度不断增加。认识到这些群体可能的症状轨迹可能有助于有针对性的护理或干预。