An increasing number of ships have chosen the suitable route to transport in Arctic waters during summer. Seeking a suitable model for risk decision-making in route planning is a necessary research topic at present. Due to its complex natural environment, there is significant uncertainty regarding ship navigation safety in Arctic waters. The process risk-based decision-making method to support route planning is established based on the dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) risk assessment model for LNG carrier collision with ice or obstacles in Arctic waters. The decision-making process for ship navigation is dynamically associated with time. Therefore, a Markov Chain (MC) is built for each dynamic node in Bayesian belief network (BBN) to realize DBN associated risk assessment, which is called process risk and is applied to decision-making. Three possible routes for ships sailing from the Vikitsky Strait to the Long Strait in Arctic waters were selected in conjunction with the objective daily change data of wind speed, temperature, wave height, and ice condition. Simulations for risk decision-making in the ship navigation process are performed. Application examples show that the ship selected either ROUTE2 (Vikitsky Strait – Laptev Sea – Sannikov Strait – Eastern Siberian Sea – Long Strait) or ROUTE3 (Vikitsky Strait – Laptev Sea – Proliv Dmitriya Lapteva – Eastern Siberian Sea – Long Strait) in August as the best navigable route.

在夏季，越来越多的船舶选择了在北极水域中运输的合适路线。在路线规划中寻求合适的风险决策模型是当前的必要研究课题。由于其复杂的自然环境，北极水域的船舶航行安全存在很大的不确定性。基于动态贝叶斯网络（DBN）风险评估模型，建立了基于LNG运载工具与北极水域中的冰或障碍物碰撞的基于过程风险的决策方法，以支持路线规划。船舶导航的决策过程与时间动态相关。因此，为贝叶斯信念网络（BBN）中的每个动态节点建立马尔可夫链（MC），以实现与DBN相关的风险评估，这称为过程风险，并应用于决策。结合客观的风速，温度，波高和冰况每日变化数据，选择了三种从维基茨基海峡航行到北极海峡的船只的可能路线。进行了船舶导航过程中风险决策的模拟。应用示例表明，该船选择了8月的 ROUTE2（Vikitsky海峡–拉普捷夫海– Sannikov海峡–西伯利亚海–长海峡）或ROUTE3  （Vikitsky海峡–拉普捷夫海– Proliv Dmitriya Lapteva –西伯利亚海–长海峡）是最佳的通航路线。