ABSTRACT

Habit persistence across six U.S. tourism sub-industries is estimated using a dynamic forward looking model. Estimates show that habits largely determine current expenditure for air transportation, shopping, accommodation, and other transportation. Estimated uncompensated price elasticities find that air transport and accommodation are price elastic in the short-run and long-run. Shopping is price inelastic in the short-run but price elastic in the long-run. An important result is that air transportation and other transportation are elastic substitutes for price changes in air transportation but inelastic substitutes for price changes in other related transportation. Estimates show that expenditure across most of the tourist sub-industries is closely related because they are gross complements. Food and beverages are necessities, price inelastic, and relatively unresponsive to changes in expenditure across the sub-industries. The estimates show that policy makers and tourist marketing should account for habit persistence and differences between the short-run and long-run.

摘要

使用动态前瞻模型估算了美国六个旅游子行业的习惯持久性。估计显示，习惯很大程度上决定了航空运输，购物，住宿和其他运输的当前支出。估计的未补偿价格弹性发现，短期和长期而言，航空运输和住宿具有价格弹性。购物在短期内价格无弹性，但从长期来看价格弹性。一个重要的结果是，空运和其他运输是空运价格变动的弹性替代品，而无弹性地替代了其他相关运输中价格变动的弹性。估计数字表明，大多数旅游子行业的支出是密切相关的，因为它们是总的补充。食物和饮料是必需品，价格缺乏弹性，并且对子行业的支出变化相对没有反应。估计数表明，决策者和旅游营销人员应考虑习惯的持久性以及短期和长期之间的差异。