abstract

The study of population changes across space and time of cohorts at different life stages is relevant for regional planning, but it is often not taken into account. We focus on a case study along the urban-rural gradient of continental Spain from 2002 to 2017 at a municipal scale. Making use of longitudinal data from the municipal registers, we studied changes in total population and three birth cohorts: the cohort joining the workforce, the cohort at a mature working age and the cohort reaching retirement during the study period. The results showed key spatiotemporal population variations. The absolute population increased in 36% of the municipalities, but at least one of the study cohorts showed an increase in 75% of the municipalities. While the cohort joining workforce tended to concentrate in urban and suburban areas, the retiring cohort tended to move to small suburban and rural municipalities. In the next decades the retirement of large birth cohorts in Spain will be a relevant issue for planning. This methodological approach allows us to understand life cycle residential movements across urban, suburban and rural areas and better enables spatial planning decisions. The method can be applied to other study areas at different spatial and temporal scales.

摘要

研究不同生命阶段队列的跨空间和时间的人口变化与区域规划相关，但往往没有被考虑在内。我们专注于 2002 年至 2017 年西班牙大陆城乡梯度的城市规模案例研究。利用市政登记处的纵向数据，我们研究了总人口和三个出生队列的变化：加入劳动力的队列、成熟工作年龄的队列和研究期间达到退休的队列。结果显示了关键的时空人口变化。36% 的城市的绝对人口增加，但至少一个研究队列显示 75% 的城市人口增加。虽然加入劳动力的群体往往集中在城市和郊区，退休人群倾向于搬到郊区和农村的小城市。在接下来的几十年里，西班牙大量出生人口的退休将成为规划的相关问题。这种方法论方法使我们能够了解城市、郊区和农村地区的生命周期住宅运动，并更好地做出空间规划决策。该方法可以应用于不同空间和时间尺度的其他研究区域。