This study attests to the important role of US midterm elections in asset pricing, even more important than presidential elections. In months following the midterms, equity premiums, mutual fund flows, and real investment growth rates are significantly higher and Treasury premiums are lower. This is consistent with theoretical models relating higher asset prices to lower future discount rates when post-election political uncertainty decreases. The results are robust to different measures of uncertainty. Also, market betas relate positively to the cross section of average returns in post-midterm months, but the relation is flat in other months.

中文翻译：

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资产价格，中期选举和政治不确定性

这项研究证明了美国中期选举在资产定价中的重要作用，甚至比总统选举更为重要。在中期之后的几个月中，股票溢价，共同基金流量和实际投资增长率显着较高，而国债溢价则较低。这与在选举后政治不确定性降低时将较高的资产价格与较低的未来贴现率相关的理论模型相一致。结果对于不同的不确定性度量是可靠的。同样，市场贝塔值与中期后月份的平均回报的横截面呈正相关，但在其他月份中，这一关系则持平。