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SARS-CoV-2 transmission and control in a hospital setting: an individual-based modelling study
Royal Society Open Science ( IF 2.9 ) Pub Date : 2021-03-22 , DOI: 10.1098/rsos.201895
Qimin Huang 1 , Anirban Mondal 1 , Xiaobing Jiang 2 , Mary Ann Horn 1 , Fei Fan 2 , Peng Fu 2 , Xuan Wang 2 , Hongyang Zhao 2 , Martial Ndeffo-Mbah 3, 4 , David Gurarie 1, 5
Affiliation  

Development of strategies for mitigating the severity of COVID-19 is now a top public health priority. We sought to assess strategies for mitigating the COVID-19 outbreak in a hospital setting via the use of non-pharmaceutical interventions. We developed an individual-based model for COVID-19 transmission in a hospital setting. We calibrated the model using data of a COVID-19 outbreak in a hospital unit in Wuhan. The calibrated model was used to simulate different intervention scenarios and estimate the impact of different interventions on outbreak size and workday loss. The use of high-efficacy facial masks was shown to be able to reduce infection cases and workday loss by 80% (90% credible interval (CrI): 73.1–85.7%) and 87% (CrI: 80.0–92.5%), respectively. The use of social distancing alone, through reduced contacts between healthcare workers, had a marginal impact on the outbreak. Our results also indicated that a quarantine policy should be coupled with other interventions to achieve its effect. The effectiveness of all these interventions was shown to increase with their early implementation. Our analysis shows that a COVID-19 outbreak in a hospital's non-COVID-19 unit can be controlled or mitigated by the use of existing non-pharmaceutical measures.



中文翻译:

医院环境中SARS-CoV-2的传播和控制:基于个体的建模研究

现在,制定缓解COVID-19严重程度的策略已成为公共卫生的重中之重。我们试图评估通过使用非药物干预措施来减轻医院环境中COVID-19暴发的策略。我们为医院环境中的COVID-19传播开发了基于个人的模型。我们使用武汉一家医院的COVID-19暴发数据对模型进行了校准。校准后的模型用于模拟不同的干预方案,并估计不同干预措施对暴发规模和工作日损失的影响。事实证明,使用高效口罩能够分别减少80%(90%可信区间(CrI):73.1–85.7%)和87%(CrI:80.0–92.5%)的感染病例和工作日损失。 。通过减少医护人员之间的联系,单独使用社会疏离,对疫情影响不大。我们的结果还表明,隔离政策应与其他干预措施相结合以实现其效果。随着早期实施,所有这些干预措施的有效性都得到了提高。我们的分析表明,可以通过使用现有的非药物措施来控制或缓解医院非COVID-19部门中的COVID-19暴发。

更新日期:2021-03-22
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