"Mission-oriented" public research organizations invest in R&D to improve decision-making around complex policy problems from climate change to asteroid impacts, thus producing public value. However, the estimation of benefits produced by such R&D projects is notoriously difficult to predict and measure - a challenge that is magnified for global catastrophic risks (GCRs). GCRs are highly uncertain risks that may pose enormous negative consequences for humanity. This article explores how public research organizations systematically reduce key uncertainties associated with GCRs. Building off of recent literature highlighting the organizational and political factors that influence R&D priority-setting at public research organizations, this article develops an analytical framework for explaining R&D priority-setting outcomes that integrates the key stages of decision analysis with organizational and political dynamics identified in the literature. This framework is then illustrated with a case study of the NASA Planetary Defense Coordination Office, which addresses the GCR of near-Earth object (asteroid and comet) impacts. The case study reveals how organizational and political factors interact with every stage in the R&D priority-setting process - from initial problem definition to project selection. Lastly, the article discusses the extent to which the case study can inform R&D priority-setting at other public organizations, particularly those addressing GCRs.

“以任务为导向”的公共研究组织投资于研发，以改善从气候变化到小行星撞击等复杂政策问题的决策能力，从而产生公共价值。然而，众所周知，这种研发项目所产生的收益估计很难预测和衡量，而全球灾难性风险（GCR）则使这一挑战更加严重。GCR是高度不确定的风险，可能给人类带来巨大的负面影响。本文探讨了公共研究组织如何系统地减少与GCR相关的关键不确定性。在最近的文献突出强调影响公共研究组织的R＆D优先级设置的组织和政治因素的基础上，本文建立了一个用于解释R＆D的分析框架。D确定优先事项的结果，将决策分析的关键阶段与文献中确定的组织和政治动态相结合。然后，通过NASA行星防御协调办公室的案例研究来说明此框架，该案例研究了近地物体（小行星和彗星）撞击的GCR。案例研究揭示了组织和政治因素如何与研发优先级确定过程的每个阶段相互作用-从最初的问题定义到项目选择。最后，本文讨论了该案例研究可在多大程度上为其他公共组织（尤其是那些针对GCR的组织）的R＆D优先级设置提供信息。然后，通过NASA行星防御协调办公室的案例研究来说明此框架，该案例研究了近地物体（小行星和彗星）撞击的GCR。案例研究揭示了组织和政治因素如何与研发优先级确定过程的每个阶段相互作用-从最初的问题定义到项目选择。最后，本文讨论了该案例研究可在多大程度上为其他公共组织（尤其是那些针对GCR的组织）的R＆D优先级设置提供信息。然后，通过NASA行星防御协调办公室的案例研究来说明此框架，该案例研究了近地物体（小行星和彗星）撞击的GCR。案例研究揭示了组织和政治因素如何与研发优先级确定过程的每个阶段相互作用-从最初的问题定义到项目选择。最后，本文讨论了该案例研究可在多大程度上为其他公共组织（尤其是那些针对GCR的组织）的R＆D优先级设置提供信息。