The forest sector can play a significant role in climate change mitigation. We evaluated forest sector carbon trends and potential mitigation scenarios in Vermont using a systems-based modeling framework that accounts for net emissions from all forest sector components. These components comprise (1) the forest ecosystem, including land-use change, (2) harvested wood products (HWP), and (3) substitution effects associated with using renewable wood-based products and fuels in place of more emission-intensive materials and fossil fuel-based energy. We assessed baseline carbon trends from 1995 through 2050 using a business as usual (BAU) scenario. Emission reductions associated with different forest management and HWP scenarios were evaluated relative to the BAU scenario from 2020 to 2050. We estimated uncertainty for each forest sector component and used a Monte Carlo approach to estimate the distribution of cumulative total mitigation for each scenario relative to baseline. Our analysis indicates that the strength of the forest sector carbon sink in Vermont has been declining and will continue to decline over coming decades under the BAU scenario. However, several scenarios evaluated here could be effective in reducing emissions and enhancing carbon uptake. Shifting HWP to longer-lived commodities resulted in a 14% reduction in net cumulative emissions by 2050, the largest reduction of all scenarios. A scenario that combined extending harvest rotations, utilizing additional harvest residues for bioenergy, and increasing forest productivity resulted in a 12% reduction in net cumulative emissions. Shifting commodities from pulp and paper to bioenergy showed a 7.3% reduction in emissions. In contrast, shortening rotations to increase harvests for bioenergy use resulted in a 5.5% increase in emissions. In summary, model simulations suggest that net emissions could be reduced by up to 14% relative to BAU, depending on the management and HWP-use scenario. Combining multiple scenarios could further enhance reductions. However, realizing the full climate mitigation potential of these forests may be challenging due to socioeconomic barriers to implementation, as well as alternative management objectives that must be considered along with carbon sequestration.

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林业部门减排的机会：州级分析

森林部门可以在减缓气候变化方面发挥重要作用。我们使用基于系统的建模框架评估了佛蒙特州的森林部门碳趋势和潜在的减缓情景，该框架考虑了所有森林部门组成部分的净排放。这些组成部分包括 (1) 森林生态系统，包括土地利用变化，(2) 伐木制品 (HWP)，以及 (3) 与使用可再生木材产品和燃料代替排放密集型材料相关的替代效应和基于化石燃料的能源。我们使用一切照旧 (BAU) 情景评估了 1995 年至 2050 年的基线碳趋势。相对于 2020 年至 2050 年的 BAU 情景，评估了与不同森林管理和 HWP 情景相关的减排量。我们估计了每个森林部门组成部分的不确定性，并使用蒙特卡罗方法来估计每个情景相对于基线的累积总缓解分布。我们的分析表明，在 BAU 情景下，佛蒙特州森林部门碳汇的强度一直在下降，并将在未来几十年继续下降。然而，这里评估的几种情景可能有效地减少排放和提高碳吸收。到 2050 年，将 HWP 转向寿命更长的商品导致净累积排放量减少 14%，这是所有情景中减少幅度最大的一次。将延长收获轮换、利用额外的收获残留物用于生物能源和提高森林生产力相结合的方案导致净累积排放量减少 12%。将商品从纸浆和纸张转向生物能源显示排放量减少了 7.3%。相比之下，缩短轮换以增加生物能源使用的收获导致排放量增加 5.5%。总之，模型模拟表明，相对于 BAU，净排放量最多可减少 14%，具体取决于管理和 HWP 使用场景。结合多种情景可以进一步加强减排。然而，由于实施的社会经济障碍以及必须与碳固存一起考虑的替代管理目标，实现这些森林的全部气候减缓潜力可能具有挑战性。模型模拟表明，相对于 BAU，净排放量最多可减少 14%，具体取决于管理和 HWP 使用场景。结合多种情景可以进一步加强减排。然而，由于实施的社会经济障碍以及必须与碳固存一起考虑的替代管理目标，实现这些森林的全部气候减缓潜力可能具有挑战性。模型模拟表明，相对于 BAU，净排放量最多可减少 14%，具体取决于管理和 HWP 使用场景。结合多种情景可以进一步加强减排。然而，由于实施的社会经济障碍以及必须与碳固存一起考虑的替代管理目标，实现这些森林的全部气候减缓潜力可能具有挑战性。