In this paper I explore an underdiscussed factor contributing to the replication crisis: Scientists, and following them policy makers, often neglect sources of errors in the production and interpretation of data and thus overestimate what can be learnt from them. This neglect leads scientists to conduct experiments that are insufficiently informative and science consumers, including other scientists, to put too much weight on experimental results. The former leads to fragile empirical literatures, the latter to surprise and disappointment when the fragility of the empirical basis of some disciplines is revealed.

中文翻译：

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对数据的信心有误

在本文中，我探讨了导致复制危机的一个未被充分讨论的因素：科学家们以及跟随他们的决策者们常常忽略了数据生产和解释中的错误来源，因此高估了可以从中学习到的东西。这种忽视导致科学家进行的信息不足的实验，包括其他科学家在内的科学消费者对实验结果的重视程度过高。前者导致脆弱的经验文献，而后者则在揭示某些学科的经验基础的脆弱性时感到惊讶和失望。