Scenario planning (SP) has been increasingly utilized by water managers and planners in the 21st century as climate and other uncertainties have challenged traditional planning approaches. This paper discusses the potential for scenario planning processes in the Colorado River Basin in the southwestern United States to build collective understanding of compound and cascading risks, and to identify possible solutions at multiple scales. Under the Colorado River Conversations Project, we convened a series of conferences and scenario planning workshops over the past 3 years to explore the potential to enhance the use of social and physical sciences in river management, and to broaden the community of people and entities engaged in discussions about managing the Colorado River. Working with a group of thirty water managers and other interested parties representing all 7 basin states, several Tribes, NGO’s and Mexico, we used a participatory, mixed-methods approach to scenario planning that identified multiple drivers of change and developed eight science-based storylines from the intersection of these drivers. The development of the storylines and the subsequent conversations with participants about impacts and solutions resulted in a framework for understanding low probability-high consequence climate and other risks across the Colorado River Basin. We highlight three lessons that speak to the value and role of SP for fostering collaboration and creativity. These lessons include: (1) the importance of process in SP in fostering deliberate community building across sectors and geographies; (2) identifying challenges with engaging with uncertainty, complexity, and risk; and (3) determining what these findings mean for future SP in the Colorado River Basin and beyond.

随着气候和其他不确定性挑战了传统的规划方法，21世纪的水管理人员和规划人员越来越多地采用了情景规划（SP）。本文讨论了美国西南部科罗拉多河流域的方案规划过程的潜力，以建立对复合和级联风险的集体理解，并确定多种规模的可能解决方案。在科罗拉多河对话项目下，我们在过去三年中召开了一系列会议和情景规划研讨会，以探讨在河流管理中增强社会科学和物理科学应用的潜力，并扩大从事此活动的人们和实体的社区有关管理科罗拉多河的讨论。我们与代表所有7个流域州，几个部落，非政府组织和墨西哥的30名水资源管理者及其他有关方面合作，使用了一种参与式混合方法进行情景规划，从而确定了多种变革驱动因素，并制定了八项基于科学的故事情节这些驱动器的交集。故事情节的发展以及随后与参与者就影响和解决方案进行的对话形成了一个框架，用于理解科罗拉多河流域的低概率，高后果气候和其他风险。我们重点介绍三个课程，这些课程说明了SP在促进协作和创造力方面的价值和作用。这些经验教训包括：（1）SP中的过程在促进跨部门和地域的故意社区建设中的重要性；（2）确定与不确定性，复杂性和风险相关的挑战；（3）确定这些发现对科罗拉多河流域及以后地区未来的SP意味着什么。