The outbreak of COVID-19 has called for swift action by governments, often involving the adoption of restrictive measures such as lockdowns. In this context, leaders have faced a trade-off between imposing stringent measures to limit the contagion, and minimizing the short-run costs on their national economy, which could impact their electoral prospects. Leveraging on both the timing of elections and the constitutional term limits faced by leaders in presidential systems, we document how incumbents who can run for re-election implement less stringent restrictions when the election is closer in time. The effect is driven by measures more likely to have a negative economic impact. This shows how electoral concerns help explain the observed differences in the response to the onset of the COVID-19 epidemic across different countries.

COVID-19 的爆发要求各国政府迅速采取行动，通常包括采取封锁等限制性措施。在这种情况下，领导人面临着在采取严格措施限制蔓延与最大限度地减少国民经济短期成本之间的权衡，这可能会影响他们的选举前景。利用选举时间和总统制领导人面临的宪法任期限制，我们记录了可以竞选连任的现任者如何在选举时间临近时实施不那么严格的限制。这种影响是由更有可能产生负面经济影响的措施驱动的。这表明选举问题如何有助于解释观察到的不同国家对 COVID-19 流行病爆发反应的差异。