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Uncertainty shocks and inflation dynamics in the U.S.
Economics Letters ( IF 2.1 ) Pub Date : 2021-03-20 , DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2021.109825
Qazi Haque , Leandro M. Magnusson

We estimate a time-varying parameter VAR (TVP-VAR) with stochastic volatility using U.S. data to study the effects of uncertainty shocks on inflation. We find the response of inflation to be negative in the post-WWII period. Our findings suggest that uncertainty shocks propagate like aggregate demand shocks and not like aggregate supply shocks.



中文翻译:

美国的不确定性冲击和通胀动态

我们使用美国数据来估计具有随机波动率的时变参数VAR(TVP-VAR),以研究不确定性冲击对通胀的影响。我们发现二战后通货膨胀的反应是负面的。我们的发现表明,不确定性冲击像总需求冲击一样传播,而不像总供应冲击那样传播。

更新日期:2021-04-04
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