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Macroeconomic shocks and Okun’s Law
Economics Letters ( IF 2.1 ) Pub Date : 2021-03-19 , DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2021.109826
Alexander Ziegenbein

I propose a simple method to estimate a macro shock-specific Okun elasticity, which characterises by how much the unemployment rate falls when output increases by one percentage point because of a specific macroeconomic shock. Using data for the US, I consider government spending, tax, monetary policy, financial, technology, and oil shocks. I find the Okun elasticity is largely stable across shocks, but subtle differences emerge: (i) the elasticity is larger for financial shocks, (ii) the speed at which unemployment adjusts relative to output depends on the shock driving fluctuations.



中文翻译:

宏观经济冲击和奥肯定律

我提出了一种简单的方法来估算特定于宏观冲击的奥肯弹性,其特征是当由于特定的宏观经济冲击而使产出增加一个百分点时,失业率下降多少。使用美国的数据,我考虑了政府支出,税收,货币政策,金融,技术和石油冲击。我发现Okun弹性在各种冲击下基本稳定,但存在细微的差异:(i)金融冲击的弹性更大;(ii)失业率相对于产出的调整速度取决于冲击驱动的波动。

更新日期:2021-03-21
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