COVID-19 disrupted international tourism worldwide, subsequently presenting forecasters with a challenging conundrum. In this competition, we predict international arrivals for 20 destinations in two phases: (i) Ex post forecasts pre-COVID; (ii) Ex ante forecasts during and after the pandemic up to end 2021. Our results show that univariate combined with cross-sectional hierarchical forecasting techniques (THieF-ETS) outperform multivariate models pre-COVID. Scenarios were developed based on judgemental adjustment of the THieF-ETS baseline forecasts. Analysts provided a regional view on the most likely path to normal, based on country-specific regulations, macroeconomic conditions, seasonal factors and vaccine development. Results show an average recovery of 58% compared to 2019 tourist arrivals in the 20 destinations under the medium scenario; severe, it is 34% and mild, 80%.

COVID-19 扰乱了全球的国际旅游业，随后给预报员带来了一个具有挑战性的难题。在本次比赛中，我们分两个阶段预测 20 个目的地的国际到达人数：(i) 事后预测 COVID 之前；(ii) 到 2021 年底大​​流行期间和之后的事前预测。我们的结果表明，单变量结合横截面分层预测技术 ( THieF-ETS）优于 COVID 之前的多变量模型。情景是根据 THieF-ETS 基线预测的判断调整制定的。分析师根据具体国家的法规、宏观经济状况、季节性因素和疫苗开发，就最有可能走向正常的道路提供了区域观点。结果显示，与 2019 年中等情景下 20 个目的地的游客人数相比，平均恢复了 58%；重度为 34%，轻度为 80%。