Assessing vulnerability to climate change and extremes is the first step towards guiding climate change adaptation. It provides the basis to decide ‘what’ adaptation measures are needed ‘where’. Vulnerability which is defined as a function of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity, differs spatially and evolves temporally. Therefore, it is imperative to understand the dynamics of vulnerability at sub-national scales to be prepared for and respond to current and future climatic risks. This paper focuses on Ethiopia where a sub-national understanding of vulnerability dynamics in smallholder agriculture systems is missing to date. The paper assesses the vulnerability of crop-based smallholder systems in Ethiopia for the past (1996–2005), current (2006–2015), and two future (2036–2045 and 2066–2075) climate scenarios using an indicator-based approach. The future scenarios are based on two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) RCP 2.6 and RCP 6.0 from four general circulation models. Results show the emergence of highly vulnerable zones that were missing in the past scenario. With Paris agreement pathway, keeping global warming under 2 C (RCP 2.6), reduction in vulnerability of 10% of the zones is noted in far future (2066–75) as compared to RCP 6.0 where the exposure increases, making 30% of the zones highly vulnerable. The projected increase in exposure to climatic hazards will worsen the vulnerability of smallholder agricultural systems in future unless the current adaptation deficit is sufficiently addressed. This study maps the temporal dynamics of vulnerability unlike the prevailing snapshot assessments at subnational-level for Ethiopia. The study seeks to assist the decision-making process to build resilience to climate change in Ethiopia and other low-income countries with similar geophysical and socio-economic conditions.

评估对气候变化和极端情况的脆弱性是指导适应气候变化的第一步。它为决定“何处”需要“什么”适应措施提供了基础。脆弱性定义为暴露，敏感性和适应能力的函数，在空间上有所不同，在时间上会不断发展。因此，当务之急是要了解为应对当前和未来的气候风险而准备和应对的地方以下各级的脆弱性动态。本文关注的是埃塞俄比亚，迄今为止，该国尚缺乏对小农农业系统脆弱性动态的国家以下理解。该文件评估了埃塞俄比亚过去（1996-2005年），当前（2006-2015年）基于农作物的小农户系统的脆弱性，以及使用基于指标的方法的两个未来（2036-2045和2066-2075）气候情景。未来方案基于四个通用流通模型中的两个代表性浓度途径（RCP）RCP 2.6和RCP 6.0。结果表明，在过去的情况下缺少了高度脆弱的区域。通过巴黎协定途径，将全球变暖保持在2 C以下（RCP 2.6），与RCP 6.0（暴露增加）相比，在很远的将来（2066-75），该地区的脆弱性将降低10％，而RCP 6.0则增加30％。区域非常脆弱。除非当前的适应赤字得到充分解决，否则预计将增加的气候危害暴露将使未来小农农业系统的脆弱性进一步恶化。这项研究描绘了脆弱性的时间动态，这与埃塞俄比亚在国家以下一级的流行快照评估不同。该研究旨在协助决策过程增强埃塞俄比亚和其他具有相似地球物理和社会经济状况的低收入国家应对气候变化的能力。