Predicting suitable locations for invasive alien terrestrial vertebrates (IATV) under different scenarios of global change is essential for local and transboundary management aimed to prevent the spread of invasions. Using a spatial modelling approach adapted to invasive species, we identify range-shifts in suitable areas for 15 of the most harmful IATV in Europe, considering future climate and land-use changes. We predict range contractions for seven of these IATV, expansion for four, and inconclusive outputs for the rest. For most Europe, future aggregated distributions show stable or decreasing trends in total IATV richness. Still, specific regions will increase their suitability for additional IATVs, including some protected and last-of-the-wild areas. Our results are informative for early decision-making and long-term strategies to prevent negative effects of IATV. Our approach is based on publicly available data, so predictions can be revised as new data becomes available.

对于旨在防止入侵蔓延的本地和跨界管理，预测在全球变化的不同情况下外来侵入性陆地脊椎动物（IATV）的合适位置至关重要。通过使用适合入侵物种的空间建模方法，我们考虑了未来的气候和土地利用变化，确定了欧洲15个最有害的IATV在合适区域内的距离变化。我们预测这些IATV中有7个的范围缩小，4个的扩展以及其余的不确定的输出。对于大多数欧洲而言，未来的总体分布显示出IATV总丰富度呈稳定或下降趋势。尽管如此，特定区域仍将增加其对其他IATV的适用性，包括一些受保护的和最后的野生区域。我们的研究结果可为早期决策和防止IATV负面影响的长期策略提供参考。我们的方法基于公开可用的数据，因此可以在新数据可用时修改预测。